Big mailbag this week. Fifteen questions. RABmailbag (at) gmail (dot) com is the place to send your questions throughout the week.
Ross asks: Assuming Tanaka opts out at the end of the season, who would you re-sign of Tanaka, Pineda, and CC and what is the contract value/years you would be willing to pay?
Well, if Masahiro Tanaka opts out, it’ll be because he’s looking for more than the three years and $67M left on his contract. This is a difficult question to answer because he’s been so bad this year. Before this season I was thinking Johnny Cueto money (six years, $120M). Now? Hard to see that happening. Jeff Samardzija money (five years, $90M)? Brandon McCarthy money (four years, $48M)? It really depends how the rest of the season plays out.
Michael Pineda, if he keeps doing what he’s been doing, will best McCarthy’s contract, I believe. He’s still on the right side of 30, and he’s been pretty durable the last three years. CC Sabathia is a year-to-year guy at this point. One year, $10M to $12M or so. How’s this sound?
- Tanaka: Four years and $80M with a Lackey clause (fifth year at the league minimum if he needs Tommy John surgery at some point during the life of the contract)
- Pineda: Four years and $60M.
- Sabathia: One year and $10M.
Those are my current guesses — and I emphasize, these are only guesses — as to what these guys will receive this coming offseason. I’d be open to re-signing all of them, especially if Tanaka is healthy and rights the ship soon. The Yankees have a lot of young pitching in the minors and that’s exciting, but give me as much pitching depth as possible. I’m definitely open to re-signing those guys at those terms.
Many asked: Why did Tanaka get the loss against the A’s???
One of baseball’s many weird scoring quirks, that’s why. Let’s set the scene: Tanaka dominated the A’s last week, striking out 13 in 7.1 innings. He left a runner on first base for Tyler Clippard in a scoreless game. Clippard threw a pickoff throw away, allowing the runner to get to third. The next batter hit a weak grounder to Chase Headley, who threw home for the out. That erased Tanaka’s runner! Clippard then allowed the runner who reached first base on the fielder’s choice to score, yet Tanaka was charged with the loss. Rule 9.16(g) explains this. Emphasis mine:
When pitchers are changed during an inning, the official scorer shall not charge the relief pitcher with any run (earned or unearned) scored by a runner who was on base at the time such relief pitcher entered the game, nor for runs scored by any runner who reaches base on a fielder’s choice that puts out a runner left on base by any preceding pitcher.
So because the runner who scored the go-ahead run initially reached base on a fielder’s choice in which the out was recorded on Tanaka’s runner, the run was charged to Tanaka. How stupid is that? That’s the rule though, so Tanaka got the loss against the Athletics last week. And there you have it.
Todd asks: I’m gonna need a ruling here. If Gleyber Torres makes it up to the show this year, do we get a revote for a new watch or does he stay on the sidebar all year regardless of level?
No re-vote! Torres stays in the sidebar all year, for better or worse. We’ve had other Prospect Watch players get called up to the big leagues in the past. Joba Chamberlain for sure. I’m pretty sure Jesus Montero as well. (I forget exactly what year Montero was the Prospect Watch guy.) The Prospect Watch is perpetual. Every game Gleyber plays this season will be added, regardless of level.
Matt asks: I see two trade suggestions all the time for the 2017 Yankees: either get a LHRP or a high end starter, but who wants to give up prospects for a reliever and who gets bumped from the rotation? That made me think, what if our high leverage lefty is the guy who gets bumped out? Is it just me, or wouldn’t CC Sabathia be a killer reliever if he airs it out an inning at a time?
Sabathia’s numbers against lefties aren’t great this year — they were hitting .278/.375/.314 (.317 wOBA) against him going into last night’s start — but that’s small sample size noise more than anything. Sabathia handled lefties well last season (.294 wOBA) and all throughout his career. Who knows, maybe his fastball will tick back up into the 93-95 mph range in the bullpen. That’d be cool. The big question is how will Sabathia handle the adjustment to the bullpen? How quickly will he warm up, that sort of thing. This is all hypothetical, of course. The Yankees won’t move Sabathia to the bullpen. But, if they add another starter, moving him wouldn’t be a bad idea given his age and impending free agency.
Jackson asks: The Yankees can trade for about up to an additional $3.6 million in IFA salary cap. What type of player(s) would the Yanks have to give up to max out to this number so that they can increase their chances of getting Otani?
Those international bonus slots usually don’t fetch much in a trade. The White Sox just traded a Single-A reliever, Alex Kratz, for roughly $750,000 in international bonus money last month. Kratz was a 27th round pick two years ago and isn’t really a prospect. A fringe prospect at best, basically. Based on that, acquiring a bunch of additional bonus money will be easy! But you have to find teams willing to trade their bonus money away, and I don’t think that’ll be easy. Most teams are looking to add spending money, not give it away.
Brian asks: Jack Curry suggested on the pregame show that Chad Green start getting high leverage relief innings over Clippard and Warren. I agree wholeheartedly. How long do you think before this starts occurring?
I’m not sure I’d have Green replace Clippard and Adam Warren in the late innings yet, but I would like to see him get some more responsibility. Now that Warren is the Seventh Inning Guy™ while Aroldis Chapman is out, the Yankees could use Green in the old Adam Warren role, that do everything reliever. One of my predictions coming into the season was Green emerging as a dominant reliever because he’s got a great fastball and a good enough slider (and no changeup, which makes starting hard). Right now it seems the bullpen pecking order is Chapman, Dellin Betances, Clippard, Warren, Jonathan Holder. Holder’s been fine, but I’d like to see Green used in some of those spots going forward.
Jim asks: The Yankees seem to be awful at hitting with RISP. But are they? How do they compare to the rest of the league??
I’ve been writing about baseball for more than a decade now, and my time at MLBTR and FanGraphs and CBS has exposed me to the fanbases of all 30 teams. And during that time, I’ve learned one thing: everyone thinks their team stinks at hitting with running in scoring position. That’s what happens when three hits in ten at-bats is considered a success. Anyway, here are where the Yankees ranked at hitting with running in scoring position going into last night’s game:
- AVG: .240 (18th in MLB)
- OBP: .322 (23rd)
- SLG: .477 (5th)
- wRC+: 111 (10th)
Middle of the pack in AVG, near the top in SLG, but bottom third in OBP. That’s annoying. I’d worry more about the OBP and AVG right now. Make fewer outs in any situation and good things will happen.
Dan asks: Could the solution to Chase Headley’s struggles be a platoon? As of this email, he is OPS’ing .749 against RHP’s and .476 against LHP’s. Torreyes is perfectly capable of hitting in a platoon with Headley if they go that route.
Interesting, I hadn’t thought about that. Going into last night’s game Headley was hitting .259/.358/.405 (111 wRC+) against righties and .173/.189/.269 (15 wRC+) against lefties. Headley has many more at-bats against righties though, and frankly he’s looked hopeless against all pitchers lately, so I’m not sure how much I’d read into those numbers. His platoon split has been pretty small the last few years too. Given how bad he’s been, I’m totally cool with giving more third base starts to Ronald Torreyes going forward. If that means a straight platoon, so be it.
Kyle asks: Are there any active Haitian ballplayers? Sharing an island with DR, one would believe baseball would still be prevalent. Any idea why so little crossover?
It’s weird, right? One side of the island produces gobs of baseball talent while the other doesn’t. Bruce Schoenfeld wrote about this earlier this year. Apparently a lot of Haitian players keep their backgrounds a secret and identify themselves as Dominican. My guess there are more than a few Haitian players in the show and we just don’t know it because they’re considered Dominican. The Yankees do have a prominent Haitian player in their farm system: Estevan Florial. Perhaps if he reaches the show and makes a name for himself, it’ll inspire other young players to identify themselves as Haitian rather than Dominican.
Anonymous asks: What are the chances the Mets non tender Matt Harvey? If that happens, does Cash make a run? I would think if given a choice Harvey would take less money (slightly less) to stay in New York.
Not happening. The non-tender thing. The only way the Mets will non-tender Harvey is if he suffers a catastrophic injury that will sideline him all of next season. It would have to be a Nathan Eovaldi situation. Why pay him a big arbitration salary to rehab in 2018 only to have him become a free agent after the season? If anything, the Mets will tender Harvey a contract and trade him. They won’t let him go for nothing. Also, Harvey might be one of the least likely players in the big leagues to take less to go anywhere. He seems like he’s going to chase every last dollar, like most big name Scott Boras clients. In the off chance the Mets do non-tender Harvey, I’m certain the Yankees would kick the tires.
Sam asks: Would a Dustin Fowler for Matt Chapman prospect swap make sense? Both are in AAA and have similar prospect rankings with Chapman just in the top 100 and Fowler just out on most lists. Chapman would be an immediate upgrade in the field and likely at the plate over Headley and the A’s are in desperate need of a real CF. It feels like it would improve both clubs right now. And yes I know #MTPS.
Interesting! They’re both fringe top 100 prospects, so in that sense they’re equals. Fowler is a very good defensive center fielder while Chapman is a Gold Glove caliber defender at third. He’s a defensive stud. Both guys have spent the entire season in Triple-A, so here’s the side-by-side statistical comparison:
- Fowler: .312/.348/.583 (155 wRC+), 9 HR, 7 SB, 5.2 BB%, 18.6 K%
- Chapman: .242/.333/.563 (125 wRC+), 11 HR, 4 SB, 12.0 BB%, 30.7 K%
They are very different hitters. Fowler is a contact lefty with some power. Chapman is a grip it and rip it righty who will strike out a bunch, but also hit the ball over the fence more often. Also, Chapman is nearly two full years older than Fowler, which is kind of a big deal. Chapman would, in theory, fill a hole for the Yankees because they need a long-term third baseman. Problem is the A’s need a long-term third baseman too.
I don’t think Fowler-for-Chapman is unfair in terms of value, nor am I against trading Fowler for anything, let alone a third baseman of the future. I just worry about Chapman’s swing and miss tendencies. I’m inclined to say keep Fowler and see if one of the 900 shortstops in the farm system can play third base long-term.
Zeke asks: What do you think about the idea of trading Aaron Hicks now and call-up Dustin Fowler? Really appreciate your blog! Great quality!
Not a bad idea as long as Fowler plays a ton, as Hicks has so far this year. If they call Fowler up only to use him like a true fourth outfielder, meaning once or twice a week, then forget it. I don’t like it. I don’t think that would happen though. Another thing: how much trade value does Hicks have? That’s not easy to answer. Are teams buying into this year’s version, or do they still see him as a reclamation project? I guess the answer to this mailbag question depends on what you’re getting back in the trade. If you’re trading Hicks as part of a package for a young starter, sure. If you’re dumping him only to open a roster spot for Fowler, nah.
John asks: With Severino’s latest good start in Baltimore on 5/30, it looks like he’s doing a great job mixing up his pitches. Last season one of the big talks with him was the lost change-up. How often has he been throwing it this year and how successful has it been?
Luis Severino admitted last year that he lost confidence in his changeup, which is why he rarely threw it towards the end of the season. Even when he went back into the rotation. Anyway, here are the changeup numbers:
| % Thrown | Avg. Velo | Whiff% | GB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 14.6% | 88.6 | 19.3% | 63.2% |
| 2016 | 9.7% | 90.0 | 8.5% | 46.4% |
| 2017 | 9.4% | 88.1 | 9.7% | 50.0% |
| MLB AVG | 12.2% | 84.1 | 14.9% | 47.8% |
He’s been throwing the changeup as often as last season, which seems wrong. It seems like he’s using the pitch much more this year. Overall, the changeup hasn’t been great. Below average swing-and-miss rate and basically an average ground ball rate. Then again, Severino doesn’t need it to be a great pitch. It would be cool if it was, but he doesn’t need it to be. He’s a fastball-slider pitcher, first and foremost. Severino just needs the changeup to give hitters something else to think about. I’m encouraged by what I’ve seen from him this year. How could you not be?
Michael asks: I am reflecting back on one of my favorite Yankees from the 2000s. I believe this was before StatCast existed. My question for you is: Do you think the liners Gary Sheffield hit were as fast or faster than the 119 MPH Statcast record for a home run Judge hit earlier this year against the O’s?
Statcast was introduced back in 2015, so no, it wasn’t around for Sheffield, unfortunately. He was the original exit velocity king, even toward the end of his career. Sheffield’s bat speed was insane. The ball exploded off his bat. It amazes me that he could swing that violently and still retire with a 10.7% strikeout rate and a 13.5% walk rate. My guess is Sheffield produced exit velocities on par with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. That 119-120 mph range might be the human limit, you know? At least for now. In a few years players will be even bigger and stronger. Remember how only a handful of guys threw 95 mph back in the day, and now everyone throws 95? At some point dudes will be hitting the ball 119 mph on the regular, probably.
Alex asks: Zack Littell is putting up great stat lines in High-A for the second straight season, but it seems that there’s no room for him in the Trenton rotation, especially since Rogers and Acevedo just got moved up ahead of him. Does he have to wait until next year to get promoted and will that stunt his development?
So far this season Littell, who came over from the Mariners in the James Pazos trade, has a 2.03 ERA (3.62 FIP) in 53.1 innings with High-A Tampa. He split last season between Low-A and High-A, so between this year and last year, he has thrown 121.1 innings at High-A. That’s a good amount, though keeping him there a little longer wouldn’t be a big deal. At some point a Double-A rotation spot will open up and he’ll get the call. These things have a way of working themselves out. I think Littell gets to Double-A sometime in August and starts next season there as well.
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