Despite yesterday’s win, the Yankees just wrapped up a pretty terrible homestand in which they went 2-5 and were outscored 37-16. So far this season they are 13-16 with a -39 run differential at home compared to 17-13 with a +11 run differential on the road. So I guess this ten-game road trip came at a good time? The Yankees are in Kansas City this weekend for a four-game wrap around series with the Royals.
What Have They Done Lately?
The Royals just took three of four from the Cardinals in one of those newfangled home-and-home series, but before that they’d lost eleven of 17. Overall, Kansas City is 29-31 with a -18 run differential. They are tied for last place in the AL Central.
Offense
The Royals are one of the worst hitting teams in baseball this season. They rank dead last with a team 81 wRC+, and their average of 3.87 runs per game is third worst in the AL. They’ve only hit 26 homers in 60 games, or five more than Nelson Cruz has hit in 57 games. Kansas City replaced their hitting coach less than two weeks ago and have averaged 4.38 runs per game since. Their only injured position player is 3B Danny Valencia (80 wRC+).
Manager Ned Yost’s lineup is supposed to revolve around OF Alex Gordon (124 wRC+), 1B Eric Hosmer (81 wRC+), and DH Billy Butler (68 wRC+), but only Gordon is pulling his weight. Between Hosmer and 3B Mike Moustakas (41 wRC+), Kansas City is quickly replacing Seattle as the place young hitters go to have their careers stall out entirely. Those two were the third and second overall picks in their draft classes, respectively. OF Lorenzo Cain (113 wRC+) has been good and C Salvador Perez (99 wRC+) average.
OF Norichika Aoki (79 wRC+) has been something of a disappointment while 2B Omar Infante (76 wRC+) has dealt with a few injuries this year. SS Alcides Escobar (95 wRC+) and OF Jarrod Dyson (80 wRC+ in limited time) lead the team with 16 and ten steals, respectively. C Brett Hayes (-44 wRC+ in very limited time) is the backup catcher and IF Pedro Ciriaco (46 wRC+ in limited time) is the backup infielder. Yes, the same Pedro Ciriaco who tormented the Yankees a few seasons ago with the Red Sox. That was a long time ago though. He stinks now.
Pitching Matchups
Friday: RHP Chase Whitley (No vs. KC) vs. RHP Jeremy Guthrie (vs. NYY)
Guthrie is 35 already. Am I the only one surprised by that? I thought he was still 32 or 33. Anyway, Guthrie has a 4.00 ERA (5.17 FIP) in a dozen starts and 78.2 innings so far this year. He throws strikes (2.17 BB/9 and 5.8 BB%) but doesn’t miss bats (4.46 K/9 and 11.8 K%), doesn’t keep the ball in the park (1.49 HR/9 and 12.4 HR/FB%), and doesn’t really get grounders (42.6%). That’s nothing new though. Guthrie has been doing that for nearly a decade now. He’s always outperformed his peripherals and after nearly 1,500 innings, it’s not a fluke. Lefties, by the way, have it him pretty hard (.358 wOBA). Righties (.289 wOBA) have not been as lucky. Guthrie still sits in the low-90s with his two and four-seamers, and he will throw a handful of cutters per start as well. A mid-70s curveball and mid-80s sliders and changeups are his three offspeed pitches. Guthrie is a bit of a kitchen sink guy despite still having good velocity.
Saturday: RHP David Phelps (vs. KC) vs. LHP Danny Duffy (vs. NYY)
Duffy, 25, returned from Tommy John surgery late last season and has spent the better part of this year bouncing between the rotation, the bullpen, and Triple-A. He has a 3.05 ERA (4.44 FIP) in 41.1 innings spanning six starts and and six relief appearances. The strikeout rate is a little low (6.31 K/9 and 17.0 K%), the walk rate a little high (3.92 BB/9 and 10.5 BB%), and the ground ball rate very low (30.5%). Duffy’s homer rate is fine (0.87 HR/9 and 7.4 HR/FB%) and righties have hit him a kinda hard (.315 wOBA), but man, he’s demolished lefties (.077 wOBA!) in a small sample. He throws his mid-90s fastball more than 70% of the time, even as a starter, and he backs it up with an upper-70s curveball and a handful of mid-80 changeups per start. Duffy has not yet thrown more than 97 pitches in a start and only once has he thrown more than 88 pitches.
Sunday: RHP Hiroki Kuroda (vs. KC) vs. RHP James Shields (vs. NYY)
Here’s a very familiar face. Shields, 33, has a 3.68 ERA (4.12 FIP) in 13 starts and 85.2 innings in his second season with the Royals, and he’s on pace to top 200 innings for the eighth straight season. Only once in that time did he throw fewer than 215 innings. Crazy. Shields is giving up a few more homers than usual (1.26 HR/9 and 14.1 HR/FB%), but otherwise his strikeout (7.35 K/9 and 19.3 K%), walk (2.00 BB/9 and 5.3 BB%), and ground ball (47.1%) numbers are in line with previous years. He has a tiny platoon split. The mid-80s changeup remains his go-to pitch, but Shields has scaled back on it a bit this year and is throwing more low-90s four-seamers and mid-80s cuttera. He also throws an upper-70s curveball on occasion. The Yankees and Shields have had many, many battles over the years, but this is a new lineup and he’s in a different uniform.
Monday: LHP Vidal Nuno (No vs. KC) vs. LHP Jason Vargas (vs. NYY)
The Royals gave the 31-year-old Vargas a four-year contract over the winter, and so far this season he has a 3.28 ERA (4.17 FIP) in 13 starts and 85 innings. There’s a lot of value in eating innings at a league average-ish rate, which Vargas has done for about five years now. He keeps walks down (2.44 BB/9 and 6.5 BB%) but otherwise does not have great strikeout (6.56 K/9 and 17.5 K%), ground ball (38.9%), or homer (1.16 HR/9 and 10.6 HR/FB%) numbers. His platoon split is pretty small as well. Vargas is definitely a finesse southpaw, sitting in the mid-to-upper-80s with his two and four-seamer. A changeup right around 80 mph is his top secondary pitch, though he’ll also throw some mid-70s curveballs. These two came right out of the generic lefty factory.
Bullpen Status
The Royals have one of the very best setup man/closer combinations in baseball in RHP Wade Davis (1.17 FIP) and RHP Greg Holland (1.25 FIP). They have 41.5% and 40.2% strikeout rates, respectively. The good news for the Yankees is that Holland has pitched in each of the last three games and Davis has pitched in three of the last four. Seems unlikely Holland will pitch tonight, and if Davis does, he probably won’t be available tomorrow.
RHP Aaron Crow (4.53 FIP), RHP Kelvin Herrera (3.00 FIP), and LHP Tim Collins (4.83 FIP) figure to pick up the high-leverage slack these next few days. Herrera throws very, very hard. Regularly hits triple digits. LHP Francisley Bueno (2.07 FIP in limited time), RHP Michael Mariot (2.76 FIP), and RHP Wilking Rodriguez (3.07 FIP in limited time) round out the rest of the eight-man bullpen. They’ve been carrying an eight relievers almost all year. Check out our Bullpen Workload page for the status of the Yankees’ relievers, then check out Royals Review and Royals Authority for the latest and greatest on the team’s opponent these next four days.
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