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River Ave. Blues » Fan Confidence

Ten Years of the RAB Fan Confidence Poll

April 29, 2019 by Mike

(Chris McGrath/Getty)

I did not realize this at the time, but the ten-year anniversary of our Fan Confidence Poll was this past March 2nd. The big stories when we launched the Fan Confidence Poll? Alex Rodriguez needing hip surgery, Mark Teahen trade rumors, and CC Sabathia’s and A.J. Burnett’s Spring Training debuts. Feels like a lifetime ago.

Like pretty much everything else with RAB, I did not expect the Fan Confidence Poll to last as long as it did. I was hoping to capture a few months worth of data, maybe two or three years worth if everything went well, and now here we are a decade later. The idea is pretty self-explanatory: Take the pulse of the fanbase over a long stretch of time.

There has always been a lot of week-to-week noise in the Fan Confidence Poll. A good week will cause fan confidence to spike. Going 1-6 and getting swept by the Red Sox meant a tumble. Big trade? Series of injuries? They all have a short-term impact on fan confidence. Here’s an interactive Fan Confidence Graph and here’s an annotated version:

(1) The absolute peak of the Fan Confidence Poll is, of course, the 2009 World Series. The Yankees won the World Series on a Wednesday. The prior Monday they had a 3-1 series lead and the Fan Confidence Poll peaked at 9.27. The following week it was at 9.25. People were apparently more confident about winning the World Series before winning the World Series than after actually winning the World Series. Huh. It’s come close a few times, but fan confidence never again reached 9.00 after the 2009 World Series hangover faded away.

(2) Eyeballing it, I would’ve guessed that dip in mid-2010 was the Cliff Lee non-trade. Fan confidence went from 8.01 one week to 6.85 the next week. But nope, it was not the Lee non-trade. That came a few weeks later. That big dip came after … a series loss to the Mets? A series loss to the Mets. The Yankees dropped two of three in Citi Field to a pretty mediocre Mets squad that weekend and fans were Mad Online. Fan confidence actually increased from 8.01 to 8.48 following the Lee non-trade. It increased because fans were happy the Yankees held on to Jesus Montero. What a time to be alive. Also, Fan confidence dropped only slightly (6.99 to 6.67) when Lee signed with the Phillies that winter.

(3) The big sudden dip in 2011 (7.42 to 5.43) is one of the largest week-to-week drops in Fan Confidence Poll history and it was because the Yankees lost five in a row the previous week, including getting swept by the Red Sox over the weekend. Also, the Yankees were 3-10 in their previous 13 games at the time, and fan angst was on the rise.

(4) In the span of about an hour one January 2012 afternoon, the Yankees traded for Michael Pineda and signed Hiroki Kuroda. Questions about the rotation persisted for two straight years up to that point (remember when they went into 2011 with Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia penciled into rotation spots?), then, in one fell swoop, the Yankees added a high-upside youngster and a quality veteran on a one-year contract. Fan confidence jumped from 7.06 to 8.41.

(5) About four months later, fan confidence dropped from 7.69 to 6.07 in the span of two weeks because we learned Pineda had a torn labrum and needed season-ending surgery, and also because Mariano Rivera blew out his knee on the Kauffman Stadium warning track during batting practice. That was not a good week.

(6) The single biggest week-to-week drop in Fan Confidence Poll history came during the 2012 ALCS. The Yankees beat the Orioles in Game Five of the ALDS and fan confidence sat at 7.98. The next week it was down to 4.41. The Yankees trailed the Tigers two games to none in the ALCS and Derek Jeter broke his ankle in Game One. Gloomy postseason series situation and the captain’s devastating injury led to a massive, massive drop in fan confidence.

(7) Despite a plethora of injuries, a good start to the season had fan confidence on the rise early in 2013. As the season played out and reality set in, fan confidence dipped and eventually bottomed out at 3.06 on September 23rd, 2013. The Yankees had been eliminated from the postseason race, the roster was old and expensive, and the farm system was unproductive. As a result, fan confidence was at its lowest point during the RAB era.

(8) A busy offseason (Carlos Beltran, Jacoby Ellsbury, Brian McCann, Masahiro Tanaka) and Tanaka’s early season dominance had fan confidence on the rise early in 2014. However, because things went so poorly the year before, the big increase only brought fan confidence back up into the 7.00 range. Fan confidence very rarely dipped below 7.00 from 2009-12. Now the Yankees were struggling to give their fans reason to get back up to that level.

(9) Aside from a few spikes at midseason, fans never really did buy into the 2015 Yankees. They faded badly in the second half and were quickly dispatched by Dallas Keuchel and the Astros in the AL Wild Card Game. By the middle of 2016, fans were as consistently low on the Yankees as at any point in Fan Confidence Poll history. They were bad, they sat just under .500 most of the first half, and there were no indications major change was coming …

(10) … and then major change did arrive. The Yankees traded veterans for prospects at the 2016 deadline, were universally praised for their moves, and fan confidence climbed from 3.51 to 6.02 in two weeks. Two weeks after that, it sat at 6.75. Gary Sanchez arrived soon thereafter and went on a two-month assault of American League pitching. Fan confidence steadily climbed starting with the 2016 trade deadline and continuing through the 2017 season and into early 2018.

(11) Last May 7th, fan confidence hit its highest point (8.71) since April 19th, 2010 (8.93). For all intents and purposes, that was the lifespan of the rebuild transition. The Yankees won the 2009 World Series, faded a bit from 2010-12, bottomed out from 2013-16, then rose back up in 2017 and 2018. Fan confidence slipped as last season progressed because the Red Sox ran away with the AL East, and it has slipped again early this year because there are so many injuries. Given how well the Yankees have played the last two weeks or so, I would’ve expected fan confidence to rise as the Yankees got healthy.

* * *

The week-to-week noise is inevitable. The overall trends in fan confidence across the last ten years are pretty easy to see in the graph though. Fans were feeling good about things from 2009-2012, then fan confidence really sank from 2013 to the middle of 2016. The climb from the 2016 trade deadline through 2017 is pretty neat. It is essentially a measurement of fans falling in love with Aaron Judge, Luis Severino, and all the other youngsters.

There will be no Fan Confidence Poll this week because there’s really no point with RAB shutting down today. Thank you to everyone who took the time to vote over the years, even the trolls who voted “one” each week. I hoped this little spur of the moment project back in the day would help us take pulse of the fanbase, and I think it’s done that quite well. The injuries stink, but I’m glad we’re going out on a high note with a talented young homegrown core.

Update: I’ve had a few people ask about weekly voting sample sizes and whatnot, so here’s my Fan Confidence Poll spreadsheet.

Filed Under: Administrative Stuff Tagged With: Fan Confidence

Fan Confidence Poll: April 22nd, 2019

April 22, 2019 by Mike

Record Last Week: 5-1 (36 RS, 19 RA)
Season Record: 11-10 (109 RS, 82 RA, 13-8 expected record)
Scheduled This Week: Four games at Angels (Mon. to Thurs.); Three games at Giants (Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

  • Following Monday’s off-day, the Yankees welcomed the Red Sox to the Bronx. James Paxton dominated in Tuesday’s 8-0 win and Brett Gardner’s late grand slam led to Wednesday’s 5-3 win and the two-game series sweep.
  • The Royals came to town next. The Yankees were flat in Thursday’s 6-1 loss, but they rebounded nicely in Friday’s 6-2 win and Saturday’s 9-2 win. Austin Romine came up big in Sunday’s 7-6 win.
  • Injury Updates: Aaron Judge (oblique) was placed on the injured list with a “pretty significant” strain. Greg Bird (foot) was placed on the injury list with a torn plantar fascia. Gary Sanchez (calf) will play a minor league rehab game today and rejoin the Yankees on Wednesday as long as everything goes well. Aaron Hicks (back) has started hitting in the cage. Miguel Andujar (shoulder) has increased his hitting and throwing. Troy Tulowitzki (calf) has resumed baseball activities. Jacoby Ellsbury (hip) has been slowed by various setbacks. Estevan Florial (wrist) had his cast removed and is close to beginning baseball activities.
  • The Yankees signed Logan Morrison to a minor league deal following Bird’s injury. Mike Ford and Thairo Estrada were called up last week to help cover for injuries.
  • Gio Gonzalez opted out of his minor league contract over the weekend. The Yankees have 48 hours to release him or add him to the roster.

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea how confident you are in the Yankees. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the Features tab in nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results

Filed Under: Polls Tagged With: Fan Confidence

Fan Confidence Poll: April 15th, 2019

April 15, 2019 by Mike

Record Last Week: 6-9 (24 RS, 32 RA)
Season Record: 1-5 (73 RS, 63 RA, 8-6 expected record)
Scheduled This Week: Monday OFF; Two games vs. Red Sox (Tues. and Weds.); Four games vs. Royals (Thurs. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

  • The week started with three games in Houston. Masahiro Tanaka’s strong start was wasted in Monday’s 4-3 loss, then the bullpen blew another lead in Tuesday’s 6-3 loss. James Paxton got hit hard in Wednesday’s 8-6 loss as the Astros finished the sweep.
  • Following an off-day, the Yankees returned to the Bronx for a series with the White Sox. The bullpen blew it again in Friday’s 9-6 loss, which was shortened by rain. CC Sabathia returned in Saturday’s 4-0 win, though the Yankees dropped another home series to a rebuilding team with Sunday’s 5-2 loss. I am annoyed.
  • Injury Updates: Luis Severino (shoulder, lat) suffered a setback and has been shut down six weeks. Dellin Betances (shoulder) suffered a setback and will be shut down four weeks. Gary Sanchez (calf) was placed on the injured list with a strain. Miguel Andujar (shoulder) has started throwing and swinging a bat. Giancarlo Stanton (biceps) has started hitting off a tee and soft toss. Aaron Hicks (back) could take batting practice this week. Troy Tulowitzki (calf) is taking swings. Danny Coulombe (shoulder) was placed on the Triple-A injured list.
  • Joe Harvey and Kyle Higashioka were called up to the Yankees last week while Jonathan Loaisiga and Stephen Tarpley were sent down.

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea how confident you are in the Yankees. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the Features tab in nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results

Filed Under: Polls Tagged With: Fan Confidence

Fan Confidence Poll: April 8th, 2019

April 8, 2019 by Mike

Record Last Week: 4-2 (34 RS, 17 RA)
Season Record: 5-4 (49 RS, 17 RA, 6-3 expected record)
Scheduled This Week: Three games at Astros (Mon. to Weds.); Thursday OFF; Three games vs. White Sox (Fri. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

  • The week started with a three-game home series against the Tigers. Gary Sanchez and Brett Gardner went deep in Monday’s 3-1 win, but Aroldis Chapman blew it in the ninth in Tuesday’s 3-1 loss. The Yankees set a new team record with 18 strikeouts in Wednesday’s 2-1 loss.
  • The Yankees went to Baltimore for a three-game series next. Gleyber Torres hit a clutch homer in Thursday’s 8-4 win, Clint Frazier hit a clutch homer in Saturday’s 6-4 win, and everyone hit homers in Sunday’s 15-3 win.
  • Injury Updates: Giancarlo Stanton (biceps), Miguel Andujar (shoulder), and Troy Tulowitzki (calf) all landed on the injured list. Andujar may need season-ending labrum surgery. CC Sabathia (knee, heart) made a minor league rehab start and is expected to join the Yankees next weekend. Luis Severino (shoulder) is still long-tossing. Dellin Betances (shoulder) will face hitters today. Aaron Hicks (back) has started baseball activities. Jacoby Ellsbury (hip) doing baseball activities.
  • The Yankees called up Jonathan Loaisiga to replace Sabathia and Thairo Estrada to replace Tulowitzki, then swapped Estrada out with Gio Urshela. They also claimed Jake Barrett off waivers and signed Cliff Pennington to a minor league deal.
  • And finally, we are shutting down RAB three weeks from today. I am burned out and it’s time to spend my time on other things.

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea how confident you are in the Yankees. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the Features tab in nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results

Filed Under: Polls Tagged With: Fan Confidence

Fan Confidence Poll: April 1st, 2019

April 1, 2019 by Mike

Record Last Week: 1-2 (15 RS, 14 RA)
Season Record: 1-2 (15 RS, 14 RA, 2-1 expected record)
Scheduled This Week: Three games vs. Tigers (Mon. to Weds.); Three games at Orioles (Thurs. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

  • The 2019 regular season has finally arrived. At home against the Orioles, the Yankees started the season with a 7-2 win on Thursday, though they lost 5-3 on Saturday and then lost 7-5 on Sunday.
  • Injury Updates: Luis Severino (shoulder) is making progress with his throwing program. Dellin Betances (shoulder) has started throwing bullpen sessions. Aaron Hicks (back) has not yet resumed baseball activities. CC Sabathia (knee) will pitch in another minor league game today.
  • The Yankees finalized their Opening Day roster. There were no surprises aside from the late spring Mike Tauchman pickup.

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea how confident you are in the Yankees. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the Features tab in nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results

Filed Under: Polls Tagged With: Fan Confidence

Fan Confidence Poll: March 25th, 2019

March 25, 2019 by Mike

Spring Training Record: 17-9-4 (169 RS, 128 RA)
Spring Training Schedule This Week: Monday at Nationals (MLBN, MLB.tv)
Regular Season Schedule This Week: Three games vs. Orioles (Thurs. to Sun.)

Top stories from last week:

  • The Yankees made two late Spring Training additions. First they signed lefty Gio Gonzalez to a minor league contract that could be worth up to $12M, then they picked up outfielder Mike Tauchman in a minor trade with the Rockies.
  • The Opening Day roster has been finalized. It includes Tauchman and Domingo German, but not Tyler Wade or Gonzalez. CC Sabathia will start the season on the active roster to get his five-game suspension out of the way. He’ll then go on the injured list.
  • Injury Updates: Dellin Betances (shoulder) will begin the season on the injured list with inflammation. Luis Severino (shoulder) has started a throwing program. Aaron Hicks (back) has yet to resume baseball activities. Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery) is hitting off a tee. Greg Bird (elbow) and Tyler Wade (hips) have since returned to the lineup after being day-to-day. Jordan Montgomery (Tommy John surgery) is targeting a mid-August return.
  • Despite the new $1M winner’s prize, Aaron Judge will again pass on the Home Run Derby.
  • The Diamondbacks returned Rule 5 Draft pick Nick Green to the Yankees.

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea how confident you are in the Yankees. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the Features tab in nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results

Filed Under: Polls Tagged With: Fan Confidence

Fan Confidence Poll: March 18th, 2019

March 18, 2019 by Mike

Spring Training Record: 13-6-4 (138 RS, 96 RA)
Spring Training Schedule This Week: Monday at Braves (no TV); Tuesday vs. Rays (YES, MLB.tv); Wednesday at Astros (MLBN, MLB.tv); Thursday at Cardinals (MLB.tv); Friday vs. Phillies (YES, MLB.tv); Saturday vs. Blue Jays (YES, MLBN, MLB.tv); Sunday at Twins (MLB.tv)

Top stories from last week:

  • The Yankees signed all 21 of their pre-arbitration-eligible players to one-year contracts for 2019. That group of players includes Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Miguel Andujar, and Gleyber Torres.
  • Injury Updates: Luis Severino (shoulder) will see the doctor tomorrow and is tentatively scheduled to begin throwing Wednesday. Aaron Hicks (back) received two cortisone shots and will miss the start of the regular season. Didi Gregorius (Tommy John surgery) will increase his throwing to 120 feet this week. Estevan Florial (wrist) crashed into the outfield wall and suffered a non-displaced fracture. Jacoby Ellsbury (hip) reported to camp but is still early in his rehab. Ben Heller (Tommy John surgery) is six weeks away from rehab games. Anthony Seigler (quad) won’t start the regular season on time. Mike King (elbow) has started a throwing program.
  • MLB and the MLBPA jointly announced a series of sweeping rule changes. Among them is a single July 31st trade deadline. Trade waivers are no more.

Please take a second to answer the poll below and give us an idea how confident you are in the Yankees. You can view the interactive Fan Confidence Graph anytime via the Features tab in nav bar above, or by clicking here. Thanks in advance for voting.

Given the team's current roster construction, farm system, management, etc., how confident are you in the Yankees' overall future?
View Results

Filed Under: Polls Tagged With: Fan Confidence

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