The All-Star break is finally over. The Yankees open the second half at home tonight, with the first of three against the Red Sox. The Yanks will play their next 13 games against contending teams (Red Sox, Orioles, Astros, Giants). This could be the stretch that pushes Hal Steinbrenner to join #TeamSell. The Yankees were swept in Fenway Park in April and won two of three from the Red Sox in Yankee Stadium in May.
What Have They Done Lately?
The BoSox swept the hapless Rays at home in the series prior to the All-Star break last weekend. They’ve won eight of their last eleven games overall. Boston is 49-38 with a +66 run differential on the season. They’re currently sitting in the top wildcard spot and are two games back of the Orioles in the AL East. The Yankees are 5.5 back of the Red Sox.
Offense & Defense
Manager John Farrell oversees the highest scoring offense in baseball. The Red Sox are averaging 5.63 runs per game with a team 117 wRC+, and both those numbers lead MLB by a lot. (Second place is 5.23 and 110, so yeah.) The Red Sox have four position players on the DL: 3B Pablo Sandoval, OF Chris Young, OF Blake Swihart, and IF Josh Rutledge. None will be back this series. Also, UTIL Brock Holt (90 wRC+) and 1B Hanley Ramirez (111 wRC+) were nursing day-to-day injuries at the end of the first half last weekend. I assume they’ll be good to go for this series.
When your offense works as well as Boston’s, you don’t screw around with the lineup too much. RF Mookie Betts (125 wRC+) leads off, 2B Dustin Pedroia (114 wRC+) bats second, SS Xander Bogaerts (129 wRC+) bats third, and DH David Ortiz (182 wRC+) cleans up. All but Pedroia were All-Stars. Hanley usually hits fifth with CF Jackie Bradley Jr. (140 wRC+) batting sixth. 3B Travis Shaw (102 wRC+) and Holt typically factor into the seventh and eighth spots somewhere.
Right now C Sandy Leon (213 wRC+ in limited time) and C Ryan Hanigan (25 wRC+) are sharing time behind the plate, and recent trade pickup IF Aaron Hill (103 wRC+) platoons at third with Shaw. Holt typically plays left and OF Bryce Brentz (98 wRC+ in limited time) is the extra outfielder. UTIL Michael Martinez (84 wRC+) is the other bench player. Boston’s bench is not good at all, which is why president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski went out added Hill last week.
The Red Sox are generally a sound defensive club up the middle with Pedroia, Bogaerts, and Bradley. Betts is solid in right as well. Shaw and Hanley are average at best in the corners — the more Shaw has played third, the more he’s gotten exposed — and Holt has a little Melky Cabrera in him in left field, meaning he makes plays look better than they are because his routes are so bad. Both Leon and Hanigan are good throwers.
Pitching Matchups
Friday (7:05pm ET): RHP Michael Pineda (vs. BOS) vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (vs. NYY)
The Red Sox picked up Drew Pomeranz yesterday, but the Yankees won’t see him this series. He’s not scheduled to make his BoSox debut until Wednesday. Anyway, Rodriguez, 23, is Boston’s version of Luis Severino, meaning he’s the talented young hurler having a disappointing sophomore season after expectations were set oh so high. He’s pitched to a 8.59 ERA (6.59 FIP) in six starts and 29.1 innings for the Red Sox before being sent to Triple-A a few weeks ago. They’re actually calling him up from Pawtucket to make this start. Rodriguez hasn’t missed many bats (15.3 K%), hasn’t gotten grounders (30.8%), hasn’t kept the ball in the park (2.76 HR/9), and hasn’t kept walks to a minimum (8.8%). Both righties and lefties have hit him hard. During his brief time in the big leagues earlier this year, Rodriguez worked with a mid-90s four-seam fastball and in the upper-80s with his changeup. He also throws a mid-to-upper-80s cutter/slider thing, and it’s his clear third pitch. Rodriguez doesn’t have a reliable breaking ball at all. The Yankees did not face him in either series earlier this season.
Saturday (4:05pm ET): LHP CC Sabathia (vs. BOS) vs. RHP Steven Wright (vs. NYY)
Although he didn’t pitch in the actual game, the 31-year-old Wright was an All-Star this year, and why not? He leads the AL with a 2.68 ERA. His 3.64 FIP is very good too. Wright has the typical knuckleballer strikeout (19.8%) and walk (9.0%) rates, though he does get a lot of grounders (47.6%). His 0.55 HR/9 is insanely low both overall and by knuckleballer standards. Either Wright is the first knuckleballer in history to learn how to suppress homers, or he’s got a big statistical correction coming. His knuckler floats in around 73 mph, and his get-me-over fastball sits in the low-80s. I should note Wright uses his fastball more than most knuckleballers, around 16% of the time. Most knuckleballers are around 10%. He likes to surprise hitters with it in two-strike counts when they’re sitting knuckleball. The Yankees faced Wright in Yankee Stadium earlier this year and he held them to one run in nine innings, because of course he did.
Sunday (8:05pm ET): RHP Masahiro Tanaka (vs. BOS) vs. LHP David Price (vs. NYY)
It wouldn’t be a Yankees-Red Sox/Blue Jays/Tigers/Rays series without Price getting a start. The 30-year-old is not having a good first season in Boston, posting a 4.34 ERA (3.42 FIP) in 19 starts and 124.1 innings. His strikeout (27.1%) and walk (5.2%) numbers are fantastic. His grounder (43.8%) and homer (1.16 HR/9) rates less so. Price has a small platoon split this season and has for a few years now. His stuff is the same as it’s always been: mid-90s four-seamers and sinkers, upper-80s cutters, mid-80s changeups, and the occasional upper-70s curveball. The Yankees have faced Price twice this season, and both times they scored six runs. They did it in seven innings the first time and 4.2 innings the second time.
Bullpen Status
Farrell’s club has suffered two pretty big blows recently. Closer RHP Craig Kimbrel (3.55 ERA/2.87 FIP) tweaked his knee during his pregame running right before the All-Star break, and wound up needing surgery to repair his meniscus. He’s going to be out 3-6 weeks. Setup man RHP Junichi Tazawa (3.62/3.73) was placed on the DL with a shoulder problem just yesterday. Here is Boston’s current bullpen:
Closer: RHP Koji Uehara (4.81/4.30)
Setup: RHP Brad Ziegler (2.75/3.33), RHP Matt Barnes (2.93/3.85)
Middle: LHP Robbie Ross Jr. (4.71/2.72), LHP Tommy Layne (3.60/3.42), RHP Heath Hembree (2.00/3.15)
Long: RHP William Cuevas (3.60/5.58)
Farrell confirmed Uehara will take over as closer while Kimbrel is out even though he’s not had a great season. Ziegler just came over from the Diamondbacks in a trade last week and is the ground ball specialist the Red Sox lost when Carson Smith blew out his elbow and needed Tommy John surgery. Layne is the lefty specialist and Ross is the full inning lefty.
Both bullpens are fresh thanks to the All-Star break. Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller did pitch in the All-Star Game on Tuesday though, so they’re not as fresh as everyone else. Shouldn’t be a problem though. Our Bullpen Workload page will tell you everything you need to know about Joe Girardi’s recent reliever usage.
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