Domenic Lanza, Author at River Avenue Blues

Early Returns on Some Former Yankees

May 3, 2017 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

One of the most frequently asked questions early in the season revolves around former Yankees. There is some measure of comfort to be had from seeing an ex-Yankee struggle in another team’s uniform, while there is an equally bothersome annoyance when those players perform well. We want to know that the Yankees made the right decision in either trading the player or letting him walk; or, at the very least, that they received back more than they sent away. The pratfalls of small sample sizes are well-known, but it is never too early to check-in on these players.

For today’s post, I’m going with any players that have been moved since the Yankees waved the white flag last season. If you would like to see any players added to this list going forward, let us know in the comments.

Johnny Barbato, Pirates – 3.2 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 1 K, 2.45 ERA, 4.11 FIP

The Yankees dealt Barbato to the Pirates two weeks ago, and received … basically nothing in return. This came on the heels of him being designated for assignment to make room for Jordan Montgomery, and there are still plenty of shuttle arms sitting at Triple-A, so it wasn’t surprising to see him moved.

Carlos Beltran, Astros – .250/.287/.354, 10 R, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 0 SB, 81 wRC+ (101 PA)

Beltran has spent most of his time at designated hitter this season, which is unquestionably his best position nowadays. He has made five starts in left, though, as a means to get Evan Gattis’ bat into the lineup at DH. The Astros will live with his defense in left, though, as that means that they have one of the the best hitting lineups in baseball for that particular game.

Ben Gamel, Mariners – .227/.346/.409, 4 R, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 0 SB, 120 wRC+ (27 PA)

An injury to Mitch Haniger opened the door for Gamel to play everyday, and he has made the most of it thus far. Haniger isn’t slated to return until the end of the month, so this is probably the best opportunity that Gamel has had to demonstrate his worth at the big league level to date.

Nick Goody, Indians – 9.0 IP, 2 H, 3 BB, 9 K, 0.00 ERA, 2.34 FIP

Terry Francona has utilized Goody as a right-handed specialist this year, and it has worked wonders thus far. He was particularly good on Sunday, when he entered the game with the bases loaded and nobody out, and escaped the inning without allowing a run by picking up a swinging strikeout and inducing a double play.

Brian McCann, Astros – .278/.369/.417, 10 R, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 0 SB, 122 wRC+ (84 PA)

The Astros are making a serious effort to keep McCann healthy and rested, as the 33-year-old catcher has already sat for six games (though, having Gattis’ bat on the bench helps that decision along), and started at DH once. He has rewarded them with a strong start to the season, which includes a dramatically sliced strikeout rate (from 20.1% last year to 12.5% this year) and an improved walk rate (up 2.8 percentage points).

Andrew Miller, Indians – 11.2 IP, 7 H, 4 BB, 16 K, 0.00 ERA, 1.55 FIP

Miller was dominant throughout his second-half with the Indians last season, including a magnificent 2016 postseason (1.40 ERA and 41.1 K% in 19.1 IP). He has continued his brilliance in 2017, as Francona continues to utilize him as a ‘bullpen ace’ instead of a traditional closer. It’s difficult to quibble with the return (Clint Frazier, Justus Sheffield, and more), but I miss Miller more than anyone else on this list – and it isn’t particularly close.

Ivan Nova, Pirates – 36.0 IP, 26 H, 1 BB, 22 K, 1.50 ERA, 2.69 FIP

Nova has walked 4 batters in 100.2 IP with the Pirates. Over that time, 247 pitchers have thrown at least 30 IP, and only Roberto Osuna and Dan Otero have walked fewer batters at three apiece. Those two have combined to throw 67.2 IP in that stretch. Among pitchers with 80 IP or more, only Carlos Carrasco is within 10 walks of Nova (he has walked 13 batters in 86.1 IP).

Blake Parker, Angels – 12.1 IP, 9 H, 4 BB, 21 K, 2.19 ERA, 0.58 FIP

Parker is currently second among relievers in WAR, tied with Kenley Jansen and Chris Devenski. It’s only May 3, and it’s obviously unsustainable – but it’s intriguing nonetheless. Angels fans are already discussing how good Parker was before injuries set-in in 2014 (he had a 143 ERA+ and 10.7 K/9 in 46.1 IP in 2013), and he was better with the Yankees than his final numbers indicate, thanks to a 0.1 IP, 4 ER affair on September 23.

James Pazos, Mariners – 12.0 IP, 10 H, 6 BB, 14 K, 3.00 ERA, 2.42 FIP

The Yankees viewed Pazos as a lefty specialist, and understandably so as he’s strictly a fastball/slider guy. The Mariners have used him as a traditional middle reliever, though, and the results of been quite good so far. It is worth noting that righties are hitting .290 against Pazos, so a correction may be forthcoming.

Anthony Swarzak, White Sox – 13.1 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 15 K, 0.00 ERA, 0.98 FIP

Would it be wrong to give the Yankees some semblance of credit for Goody, Parker, Pazos, and Swarzak all pitching so well in 2017? After all, they were members of the team’s Scranton/Wilkes-Barre shuttle last year; that may be a bit unfair, considering that they have been far better away from the pinstripes. Swarzak is also one of three former Yankees (Tommy Kahnle and David Robertson are the others) pitching quite well out of the White Sox bullpen this year.

Luis Torrens, Padres – .083/.154/.083, 0 R, 0 HR, 1 RBI, 0 SB, -28 wRC+ (13 PA)

The 21-year-old Torrens was selected by the Padres in the Rule 5 Draft, and the expectation was that he’d be returned to the Yankees by the end of Spring Training. After all, he had played exactly zero games above Single-A, and there was no indication that he would be ready to play at the highest-level. That didn’t happen, though, and Torrens is riding the Padres bench as the team’s third-string catcher. Whether this helps or hurts his development is an interesting question, as Torrens was (or is) a solid catching prospect.

Kirby Yates, Padres – 2.1 IP, 3 H, 1 BB, 1 K, 7.71 ERA, 14.59 FIP

The Padres are Yates’ second organization of the young season, as he was waived by the Angels after just one appearance. In defense of the Angels, it was an awful appearance – he allowed a two-run home run to Kevin Pillar (which plated an inherited runner) and a solo shot to Justin Smoak, with two additional Blue Jays taking him to the warning track.

5/1 to 5/3 Preview: Toronto Blue Jays

May 1, 2017 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

(Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images North America)

The calendar has flipped to May, and I’m not sure which is more surprising – the Yankees being tied for first place in the American League, or the Blue Jays having the second-worst record in all of baseball. It is essentially a meeting of one team firing on all cylinders, while another experiences several worst-case scenarios, and it is quite refreshing to be the former after being the latter for a couple of years (even if it’s only May 1).

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees visited Toronto from September 23rd through the 26th in their final road series of the 2016 season. They lost three of four to the Blue Jays, securing a sub-.500 record against AL East opponents, and were effectively eliminated from postseason contention. Some other points of interest:

The Yankees were shut out in the first two games, which contributed to a 33-inning scoreless streak. They snapped that streak in the third game (though, they still lost 4-3).
Tyler Clippard pitched on back-to-back nights, and the results were not pretty – 1.1 IP, 5 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 1 K, two losses, and a blown save.
Luis Severino started game four, and retired just three batters before being ejected following the second brawl of the game. The Yankees ended up using eight pitchers in total … and still managed to win 7-5 thanks to a five-run outburst in the top of the ninth.
The game wasn’t over following that outburst, though. Dellin Betances loaded the bases in the bottom of the 9th and turned the ball over to Tommy Layne with no outs. Layne allowed two inherited runners to score, but managed to ease the door shut nevertheless.

You can read more about the series in Katie’s Yankeemetrics post.

Injury Report

Third baseman Josh Donaldson (right calf injury) and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki (right hamstring injury) are both on the disabled list, and neither is eligible to return during this series. J.A. Happ is on the disabled list, as well; he might be activated this week, but he isn’t scheduled to start against the Yankees. And Aaron Sanchez may end up joining them after he is re-evaluated sometime today, as a result of a bloody split fingernail during Sunday’s game (his first game back from the DL, following an issue with a blister on the same finger).

Their Story So Far

The aforementioned injuries have been a major story for the underachieving Blue Jays, who currently sit at 8-17. They took two out of three from the Rays this past weekend, winning back-to-back games for the first time this year along the way. It has been a less than ideal start for a team with designs on returning to the playoffs this year.

Jose Bautista’s struggles have been well-documented, too. The 36-year-old is batting .178/.309/.244 (61 wRC+) with 1 HR in 110 PA. Last year was by far his worst post-breakout effort, and he has dealt with a laundry list of injuries over the last few seasons. Is it simply a matter of age catching up with him? Or is it merely a slump? That may well be the biggest question Blue Jays fans are asking themselves right now.

The Lineup We Might See

The Blue Jays offense has struggled this season, scoring just 3.56 runs per game. That’s not surprising, considering the lack of production from Bautista, and the fact that Donaldson and Tulowitzki have played only 9 and 16 games, respectively. With the team remaining at less than full-strength until the second week of May, here’s what the Yankees are likely to see this week:

Kevin Pillar, CF
Ezequiel Carrera, LF
Jose Bautista, RF
Kendrys Morales, DH
Justin Smoak, 1B
Russell Martin, C
Chris Coghlan, 3B
Darwin Barney, 2B
Ryan Goins, SS

Manager John Gibbons doesn’t have any one locked-in lineup, though, so we will probably see some Steve Pearce in LF and Devon Travis at 2B. And, given how many lineups they’ve used over the last ten days or so, we may well see three completely different groups.

The Pitchers We Will See

Monday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Marco Estrada

Estrada had a career year as a 32-year-old back in 2015, his first with the Blue Jays, and few thought that he would repeat it in 2016. A year and five starts later, though, and the front office must be quite pleased with itself as Estrada boasts a 3.26 ERA (129 ERA+) in Toronto. How has he done it? Despite a small-ish stature and a sub-90 MPH fastball, Estrada is incredibly difficult to hit – only Clayton Kershaw, Jake Arrieta, and Max Scherzer have allowed a lower batting average against since the beginning of 2015.

Nearly 90% of Estrada’s pitch selection revolves around his upper-80s four-seam fastball and upper-70s change-up. He’ll mix in a cutter and a curveball every now and then, as well. The stuff is underwhelming in terms of velocity, but he has deception in his delivery, and everything that he throws moves all over the place.

Last Outing (4/25 vs. STL) – 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 BB, 9 K

Tuesday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. RHP Mat Latos

Three short years ago, Latos ranked among the best young pitchers in the game. He posted a 113 ERA+ in 952 IP through his age-26 season, and featured a low-to-mid 90s fastball and wipeout slider. Injuries struck in 2014, though, and have continued to do so. He has bounced between six organizations over the last two-plus seasons, owing to said injuries and an ugly 79 ERA+ between 2015 and 2016. There are also rumblings that Latos is a less-than-ideal teammate, which may well contribute to teams giving up a bit quickly on a pitcher still several months shy of his 30th birthday.

Latos’ fastball velocity now sits in the low-90s, rarely reaching its heights from a few years back. He throws a four-seamer and a two-seamer, as well as a mid-to-upper 80s slider that is still picking up whiffs.

Last Outing (4/27 vs. STL) – 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 4 K

Wednesday (7:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Marcus Stroman

Stroman was expected by many to be the Blue Jays ace last season, which is a bit unfair to a 25-year-old pitcher with 24 MLB starts under his belt. He fell short of those expectations, posting a 4.37 ERA (98 ERA+) and just 1.4 bWAR; he did stay healthy, tossing 204 IP after missing nearly all of 2015 with an injury. He also maintained excellent groundball (an MLB-best 60.1%) and walk (6.3%) rates. Stroman turns 26 today.

Nearly 60% of Stroman’s offerings this year have been his low-to-mid 90s two-seamer, which has led to his typically high groundball rates. He also throws a low-to-mid 90s four-seamer, a mid-80s slider, and a low-80s curveball.

Last Outing (4/28 vs. TOR) – 7.1 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 10 K

The Bullpen

The Blue Jays bullpen was excellent on Sunday, tossing 8 innings following Sanchez’s injury, allowing just eight base-runners and one run, while striking out 9. Prior to that game, however, the group sported a 5.05 ERA, and had blown an MLB-worst 8 saves. Closer Roberto Osuna accounts for three of those blown saves, and is sitting on a 5.63 ERA in eight appearances. Jason Grilli (7.27 ERA in 8.2 IP) and Ryan Tepera (5.93 ERA in 13.2 IP) are the other primary offenders.

It will be interesting to see how Sunday’s happenings influence Gibbons’ bullpen management during this series. At the very least, it’s unlikely that they can piece together a bunch of innings on Monday evening.

Yankees Connection

Russell Martin is the only real connection to the Yankees franchise that we will see this week. And I still miss him.

Who (Or What) To Watch

The slumping Bautista loves hitting at Yankee Stadium – he’s a career .273/.420/.582 hitter in the Bronx, with 17 HR in 194 at-bats. This is the pessimistic fan inside me talking, but I am preemptively angry at him busting out of his slump against the Yankees. Perhaps this will be an instance of the reverse jinx, though.

And it bares repeating that there were two bench-clearing brawls the last time these teams met. Many of the players are different nowadays, but this rivalry has become more intense in recent years. Here’s hoping the Yankees come out on top this time, letting their bats and gloves do the talking.

4/28 to 4/30 Preview: Baltimore Orioles

April 28, 2017 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

Future Yankee Manny Machado. (Patrick Smith/Getty Images North America)

The Yankees are heading back to the Bronx to continue their three-series stretch against divisional opponents. It’s too early for this to feel terribly significant, but it’s interesting nevertheless that this series could determine who is in first place in the AL East on May 1.

The Last Time They Met

It was just three weeks ago that the Orioles hosted the Yankees, taking two out of three in a rather frustrating series. The Yankees dropped the first two despite holding leads of four and three runs, respectively, with the bullpen taking the loss in both games (one-run losses, at that). In fact, the Yankees outscored the Orioles 16-14 that weekend, while also accumulating seventeen more base-runners. And, as if that wasn’t bothersome enough, it was also the series in which Gary Sanchez went down with a shoulder injury.

Check out Katie’s Yankeemetrics post for more interesting tidbits.

Injury Report

Closer Zach Britton is on the disabled list with a left forearm strain, and was initially expected to be back sometime in May. He’s slated for a rehab assignment on Friday, though, and could be activated for Sunday’s game. Starter Chris Tillman is also on the disabled list, and has been since Spring Training due to right shoulder bursitis that required a platelet-rich plasma injection. He made a rehab start at High-A Frederick on Thursday, so he won’t be back in time for this series.

Their Story So Far

The Orioles sit atop the AL East (and the American League as a whole) with a 14-6 record. Their offense has struggled at times (95 wRC+, 3.95 runs per game), but their pitching has been excellent, placing fifth in the majors with a 3.42 ERA. As per usual, and despite Britton’s injury, the bullpen has been particularly strong, maintaining a 2.73 ERA thus far; surprisingly, the rotation has been more than adequate, as well, with a 3.82 ERA.

Starter Dylan Bundy is their feel good story of the moment, as the former top prospect has been excellent through four starts (26.1 IP, 20.4 K%, 4.1 BB%, 1.37 ERA, 1.88 FIP). He missed the vast majority of 2013 through 2015 due to various injuries, and was all but written off as a result. It’s still very early in the season, of course, but it’s a promising start on the heels of a decent (and mostly healthy) 2016 season.

The Lineup We Might See

Buck Showalter employs a few platoons, so the lineup will likely be dependent upon who is starting for the Yankees. CC Sabathia and Jordan Montgomery will probably see something like this:

Craig Gentry, LF
Adam Jones, CF
Manny Machado, 3B
Mark Trumbo, RF
Chris Davis, 1B
Trey Mancini, DH
Welington Castillo, C
Jonathan Schoop, 2B
J.J. Hardy, SS

Whereas Michael Pineda will probably face a lineup along these lines:

Seth Smith, RF
Jones, CF
Machado, 3B
Davis, 1B
Trumbo, DH
Castillo, C
Hyun Soo Kim, LF
Schoop, 2B
Hardy, SS

The Pitchers We Will See

Friday (7:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Kevin Gausman

The Yankees roughed Gausman up on April 8, to the tune of 4 runs on 8 hits and 3 walks in just 4.2 IP. It was a welcome sight, considering that the 26-year-old held the Yankees to a 1.10 ERA in 41.0 IP last year (and a 4.35 ERA against every other team). Last year did appear to be something of a breakout for Gausman, as he pitched a full, healthy season, but the early returns have not been too encouraging (particularly his 5.63 BB/9 and 7.50 ERA).

Gausman is a three-pitch guy, featuring a mid-90s fastball, a mid-80s splitter (against which hitters whiffed 20.7% of the time last year), and a low-80s slider.

Last Outing (vs. BOS on 4/23) – 5.1 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 3 BB, 4 K

Saturday (1:05 PM EST): RHP Michael Pineda vs. RHP Ubaldo Jimenez

The Yankees knocked Jimenez around, as well, scoring 5 runs on 7 hits (including two home runs) in his 4.1 IP. Jimenez somehow avoided the Yankees in 2016, which seems all but impossible for a pitcher that spent the entire season in the AL East, making 25 starts along the way; that may have been by design, though, given his career 5.50 ERA in Yankee Stadium. Am I alone in remembering when fans of most every team wanted a shot at Jimenez back in 2011? That seems even more impossible, with the benefit of hindsight.

Jimenez used to pump his two- and four-seam fastballs into the mid-to-upper 90s, but they currently sit right around 90 MPH. He also throws a splitter and a slider, both of which sit in the low-80s. He’ll also sprinkle in a mid-70s curveball every now and then.

Last Outing (vs. TBR on 4/24) – 3.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 5 BB, 3 K

Sunday (1:05 PM EST): LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. LHP Wade Miley

Miley held the Yankees scoreless on April 9, despite walking seven in 5 IP. The Yankees won that game anyway, scoring 7 against the bullpen, but it was an irritating first five innings. The 30-year-old Miley has quietly been an innings eater for some time now, having made at least 29 starts and thrown at least 166 IP in each of the last five seasons. He’s a rock solid back of the rotation starter, although he is coming off of his worst full season by ERA (5.37) and FIP (4.45).

It may be a bit of a cop-out to call Miley a crafty lefty, but that’s exactly what he is. He throws a couple of low-90s fastballs, a low-80s change-up, a low-80s slider, and a mid-80s curveball, and he threw all of his offerings regularly last season. As per PITCHf/x, Miley has thrown his change-up significantly less this season, so that may be something to watch.

Last Outing (vs. TBR on 4/25) – 7.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 6 BB, 8 K

Yankees Connection

Buck Showalter’s four-year tenure as the Yankees manager (1992 to 1995) is always brought up when these teams meet, so much so that you’d think that the Orioles stole him from the Yankees. He was a fine manager in the Bronx, winning AL Manager of the Year for the strike-shortened 1994 season (they had the best record in the league when the season was cut short), and guiding the Yankees to the playoffs in 1995. His departure from the organization wasn’t on good terms, though, as he resigned after George Steinbrenner demanded that he fire his pitching coach.

LHP Vidal Nuno is the only other real connection, having pitched for the Yankees for parts of two seasons. He was dealt to the Diamondbacks for Brandon McCarthy back in 2014. I suppose you could also count Chris Davis, who was drafted by the Yankees out of high school in the 50th round of the 2004 draft, but opted to go to college instead.

Who (Or What) To Watch

Machado’s defense at the hot corner is must-see TV, and that may well be the only reason to watch the Orioles this weekend. The offense does hit plenty of home runs, too, if dingers are your thing, which reminds me – you should also follow Sung Min Kim on Twitter, on the off-chance that Hyun Soo Kim goes deep (or just because he’s a great follow).

4/25 to 4/27 Preview: Boston Red Sox

April 26, 2017 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

The Yankees are heading up to Boston for their first meeting with the Red Sox in 2017. It only seems as though the Red Sox are always either the last team they played, or the next team they will play – but it just so happens to be true this time around. This will be the only time the teams meet in the first two months of the season, as they won’t square-off again until June 6 in Yankee Stadium.

The Last Time They Met

In the penultimate series of the 2016 season, the Yankees hosted the Red Sox for a three-game set beginning September 27, and the good guys walked away with the sweep. That sweep had precious little impact on the Yankees season; however, it did help to bump the Red Sox down to third in the American League, costing them homefield advantage in the ALDS, where they were swept by the Indians. We can call that a tiny victory. Some other notes:

Gary Sanchez and Didi Gregorius both reached the 20 home run mark in the first game of the series.
Mark Teixeira hit the final home run of his career in the second game of the series – a walk-off grand slam to right-center. It may well be the most memorable home run of his stint with the Yankees, and it was a hell of a way to put a stamp on his career as a whole.
That second game was incredible in general, as the Yankees went into the bottom of the 9th trailing 3-0, with only four men reaching base (a single and three walks) in the first eight innings. Craig Kimbrel’s ERA jumped from 2.65 to 3.35 thanks to Teixeira and Co.
CC Sabathia had one of his best starts of the season in the last game of the series, posting the following line – 7.1 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 8 K. He struck out the first four batters he faced, as well, in Aaron Hill, Andrew Benintendi, Xander Bogaerts, and David Ortiz.
Speaking of which – Ortiz went 0-for-10 with 2 BB in his last visit to the Bronx.

Injury Report

David Price (forearm/elbow soreness), Tyler Thornburg (shoulder soreness), Carson Smith (recovering from Tommy John Surgery), Brock Holt (vertigo), Pablo Sandoval (knee), and Roenis Elias (oblique strain) are all on the disabled list, and none are slated to be ready for this series. The timetables for Price, Thornburg, Smith, and Elias are somewhat unclear, though Price did throw a 30-pitch bullpen session on April 21.

There is also a chance that Dustin Pedroia could miss some time, due to swelling in his knee and ankle resulting from a hard slide by Manny Machado on Friday night. He had to be helped off the field following the collision, and sat on both Saturday and Sunday, and is currently considered day-to-day.

Their Story So Far

Injuries have plagued the Red Sox in 2017, as one might guess from their current disabled list. That doesn’t tell the whole story, though, as Jackie Bradley Jr. just returned from the DL, and Xander Bogaerts and Hanley Ramirez are dealing with nagging injuries that have held them out of the lineup. Their depth has been tested quite a bit already, but they’ve managed to keep their collective head above water (they’re currently 11-8 with a +3 run differential).

The Lineup We Might See

The Red Sox lineup has seen a great deal of mixing and matching, and that stems from the injuries. Manager John Farrell isn’t known for platooning or riding the hot hand, so it’s fairly safe to say that the lineup will look like this if Pedroia can suit up:

Pedroia, 2B
Benintendi, LF
Mookie Betts, RF
Ramirez, DH
Mitch Moreland, 1B
Bogaerts, SS
Bradley, CF
Marco Hernandez, 3B
Sandy Leon/Christian Vazquez, C

If Pedroia sits, the Yankee pitching staff will probably see something along these lines:

Bogaerts, SS
Benintendi, LF
Betts, RF
Ramirez, DH
Moreland, 1B
Bradley, CF
Hernandez, 2B
Leon/Vazquez, C
Josh Rutledge, 2B

The Pitchers We Will See

Wednesday (7:10 PM EST): RHP Luis Severino vs. RHP Rick Porcello

It has been a less than ideal start to Porcello’s defense of his Cy Young award, as the 28-year-old has allowed at least three runs in each of his four starts. (As an aside, am I the only one who continuously forgets that Porcello is so young? This is his ninth season in the majors, and he’s thrown just shy of 1500 IP.) His peripherals remain strong – particularly his 21.1 K% and 4.6 BB% – but he’s been hit hard (only seven pitchers have surrendered a higher hard-hit percentage), and it shows in his 5.32 ERA and 1.90 HR/9.

Porcello is a true five offering pitcher, with a couple of low-90s fastballs, a slider, a curveball, and a change-up. He usually racks up grounders with the fastball, and picks up whiffs on the slider and change piece.

Last Outing (vs. TOR on 4/19) – 7 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 5 K

Thursday (7:10 PM EST): RHP Masahiro Tanaka vs. LHP Chris Sale

The Red Sox paid a king’s ransom for Sale this off-season, and he has been well worth the price thus far. His line to date: 29.2 IP, 15 H, 6 BB, 42 K, 0.91 ERA, 1.10 FIP, 1.5 fWAR. Sale’s obscene 38.9% strikeout rate leads the majors, as does his 33.3 K-BB%. There was some concern about his dip in velocity and strikeouts last season, but pitching to contact and saving some stress was the game plan in 2016 – this year’s strategy seems to be making opposing hitters look foolish.

Sale throws two low-to-mid 90s fastballs (a four-seamer and a two-seamer), a mid-80s change-up, and a high-70s slider that may well be illegal in some jurisdictions. He generates whiffs on all four pitches, to boot.

Last Outing (vs. TOR on 4/20) – 8 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 13 K

The Bullpen

The Red Sox acquired Carson Smith to be the set-up man last year, and he pitched three games before going under the knife. They picked-up Tyler Thornburg to fill that role in 2017, and he has yet to pitch due to a shoulder issue. Their bullpen nevertheless remains fairly stout, with Craig Kimbrel closing, and Heath Hembree and Joe Kelly doing a fine job in the middle innings. The group as a whole sports a 2.21 ERA, and most everyone should be available for the upcoming series due to Monday’s off-day.

Yankees Connection

These two teams rarely come together as trade partners, and understandably so. As a result of this, OF Chris Young is the only former Yankee on the Red Sox roster. He’s currently batting .225/.344/.283 (82 wRC+) in part-time duty, after putting up a solid 125 wRC+ in a similar role in 2016. Also, hitting coach Chili Davis played for the Yankees in 1998 and 1999, and third base coach Brian Butterfield spent many years with the Yankees in many different capacities.

The Yankees have two former Red Sox on the roster in Jacoby Ellsbury and Tommy Layne.

Who (Or What) To Watch

If the season ended today, Andrew Benintendi might just be Aaron Judge’s chief competition for Rookie of the Year. The 22-year-old is currently batting .347/.415/.444 (146 wRC+) with a 8.5 BB% and 12.2 K%. He’s also reached base safely in 16 of 18 games thus far. As much as I would like to mock his lack of power, he has some of the best pure bat-to-ball skills around right now. Between Benintendi, Bradley, and Betts, the Red Sox have three young and very good outfielders that are sure to frustrate the lot of us for the next several years.

I wish I could quit Starlin Castro

April 24, 2017 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

Starlin Castro is not a very good major league baseball player. This is something that precious few people would find shocking or inaccurate, and yet I feel the need to say it. His career 97 wRC+ is a bit above-average for a middle infielder, but, when combined with his subpar defense and middling to poor base-running it leads to an average of 1.8 fWAR per 150 games. If you squint, you can easily convince yourself that Castro is an average big leaguer – I just happen to take it a step further.

I was ecstatic when the Yankees dealt Adam Warren for Castro a year and a half ago. I saw a 25-year-old player that had shown flashes of greatness in his six seasons in the majors, and was just one season removed from a deserved All-Star appearance. And, given his age and overall contact-heavy approach, it wasn’t difficult to recall the 70s and 80s that scouts tossed on his hit tool back in 2010. He was a frustratingly inconsistent player, to be sure, but the talent was obvious, and he felt like the ideal ‘change of scenery’ type, given the new direction of the Cubs franchise and his status as the face of the failures of the previous several seasons.

This time last year, it seemed as though my optimistic outlook was paying off. Castro wrapped-up April batting .305/.345/.488, which was essentially his 2014 season with more power. Nothing screamed outlier, either, as his .324 BABIP was less than a handful of points higher than his career norm, his 5.7 BB% was in-line with his better seasons, as was his 12.6 K%, and his 15% HR/FB was explained by a few cheap home runs. And the power wasn’t what we were looking for anyway – it was always about Castro getting back to that .300 batting average range, and seeing what happened around it. Things were looking up.

And then he hit .244/.278/.370 for the next three months. His walk rate dropped by 1.7 percentage points, his strikeout rate jumped by nearly 8 percentage points, and his BABIP dropped down to .285. We watched Castro swing at everything between his shoulders and his ankles, and most anything that came within six inches of the strike zone. Is there hyperbole sprinkled in there? Yes, to some extent – but that’s what the Castro experience feels like. He rebounded in August and September, and that led to some positive buzz; but the damage was done.

Or so you’d think, as I’m finding myself gravitating right back into his corner.

As of this writing, Castro is batting .357/.400/.571, good for a 178 wRC+ – easily his best month in pinstripes, if not his career. It’s obviously unsustainable (note the .396 BABIP), but could we be seeing some tangible change? Maybe. Probably not … but maybe.

It all begins with his swing rates. As per FanGraphs, Castro is currently swinging at 32.5% of pitches outside of the strikezone (1.3 percentage points below his career norm), and 49.1% overall. Both are his lowest since 2014, and both are within striking distance of league-average; the aggressiveness is still there, but it has been toned down. For better or worse, however, we saw this last April, too:

Those charts are incredibly similar, and tell the same story – Castro loves to swing. And that includes swinging at pitches in on the hands, which may well be his kryptonite (announcers and fans have long lamented his propensity to be jammed inside). When everything’s working with his swing, he’ll pick up hits on those pitches; when it’s not, we see far too much weak contact.

What about the uptick in walks, though? Castro’s 6.7% walk rate would represent the high water mark of his career if it held, and it’s his best single month mark since July of 2014. That’s not great at face value, but it’s an improvement for the swing-happy second baseman. And there might just be something there, when you consider his swing percentages and his career-high 3.85 pitches per plate appearance.

That 3.85 P/PA mark is right around league-average, and represents a very real improvement from his 3.69 P/PA of 2016, and career rate of 3.68 P/PA. And that is something that we didn’t see last year, even in his hot April when he saw just 3.65 P/PA. While such a jump only represents an extra 130 or so pitches seen per season, it is nevertheless a positive indicator of a (potentially) more disciplined hitter.

There could also be something to Castro’s batted ball profile, as well. Castro is pulling the ball just 35.1% of the time, after sitting at or above 40% from 2014 through 2016. He’s also going the other way on 29.8% of batted balls, 3.8 percentage points above his career norm (and the second highest rate of his career). Given his average power, that’s a good way to take advantage of Yankee Stadium – especially when you factor in his continued uptick in flyballs and decrease in grounders.

Attempting to discern any real information from eighteen games and 75 plate appearances is something of a fool’s errand, and that oftentimes feels even more true with Starlin Castro. It is clear, though, that Castro has been a bit more disciplined this year, and that is contributing to his hot start. Moreover, prior successes (and scouting reports) tell us that the talent is there, and many of us have bought in, albeit to varying degrees. When talent and production meet in an age-27 season, the word ‘breakout’ comes to mind – but we’ve been fooled before.

4/21 to 4/23 Series Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates

April 21, 2017 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

It would be difficult to call the Yankees first homestand anything less than a riveting success, considering their 8-1 record, strong offense, and terrific all-around pitching. They’ll take the show back on the road for the next six games, beginning with a three-game set against the Pirates in what might just be the nicest ballpark in Major League Baseball.

The Last Time They Met

The Yankees hosted the Pirates for three games back in May of 2014, and took two out of three. They played a double-header that weekend, too, as the Friday night game was postponed due to inclement weather. A few points of interest:

Carlos Beltran had been placed on the disabled list the night before the series began, so Zoilo Almonte started all three games – he went 2-for-9 with a home run.
Eight of the pitchers who appeared for the Yankees are no longer with the team; that number is seven for the Pirates.
In the second game of the double-header, the Yankees played thirteen position players and four pitchers – only two (Brett Gardner and Jacoby Ellsbury) are still with the team.
The Yankees as a team were a strong 5-for-13 with runners in scoring position in the series, and scored three runs with two outs.

Injury Report

The Pirates are one of two teams (the Cubs are the other) that do not have any players on the disabled list. That being said, they will be without CF Starling Marte until July 18 at the earliest, as the 28-year-old was suspended for 80 games after testing positive for an anabolic steroid. While Marte had been in a bit of a slump to start the season, this is nevertheless a huge loss as he averaged 4-plus fWAR over the last four seasons; it will be interesting to see how they handle his absence going forward (their top prospect, CF Austin Meadows, is just a phone call away at Triple-A).

IF Jung Ho has yet to make his 2017 debut, as he is currently awaiting an appeal of his drunk driving conviction in South Korea, and has been unable to get his work visa as a result. The hearing isn’t until May 25 either, so his timetable to return is complete up in the air.

Their Story So Far

Marte’s suspension immediately became the story of the Pirates season, as he had already been placed firmly in the spotlight for taking over center-field duties from face-of-the-franchise Andrew McCutchen. They were viewed as a long shot to return to the playoffs in 2017 to begin with, and losing Marte is a serious blow to an offense that is already struggling immensely (80 wRC+, 3.3 runs per game).

Well that, and Ivan Nova somehow sporting a 2.25 ERA and 2.90 FIP despite striking out just 3.60 per 9 thus far (small sample size or not, that’s at least a little funny).

The Lineup We Might See

Prior to his suspension, Marte hit first or second in every Pirates game. In the games that he has not led off, Clint Hurdle has deployed three different hitters – and that has been his modus operandi, given that McCutchen is the only hitter that has not been moved around the lineup, batting third in every game. With that in mind, the Yankees will probably see a lineup that looks something like this:

Adam Frazier, RF
Josh Harrison, 2B
Andrew McCutchen, CF
Gregory Polanco, LF
David Freese, 3B
Francisco Cervelli, C
Josh Bell, 1B
Jordy Mercer, SS

The Pitchers We Will See

Friday (7:05 PM EST): LHP CC Sabathia vs. RHP Tyler Glasnow

Glasnow was a consensus top-25 prospect heading into 2017, and it isn’t difficult to see why. The 6’8″ righty struck out 31% of the batters he faced between Double-A and Triple-A last year, on the strength of a fastball that sits in the mid-90s and a big breaking curveball that sits around 80 MPH. Both pitches have been graded as plus to plus-plus, and his change-up shows some promise, as well. As is to be expected from a gigantic pitcher with tremendous stuff, though, Glasnow has struggled with his mechanics and control, resulting in poor walk rates in the minors and even worse totals in the majors. If you look at his stuff, size, and numbers and think of Dellin Betances, I don’t think anyone would hold it against you.

Last Outing (vs. CHC on 4/15) – 5 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 2 BB, 7 K

Saturday (4:05 PM EST): RHP Michael Pineda vs. RHP Jameson Taillon

It almost feels like a miracle that Taillon is in the majors right now. The 25-year-old missed all of 2014 and 2015 as a result of Tommy John Surgery, complications from said surgery, and a hernia during recovery, and there were rumblings that his stuff would never fully recover. He earned a surprising call-up in June of last year, after making just ten starts in the minors, and proved that he belonged almost immediately. All told, he pitched to the following line as a rookie – 104 IP, 20.3 K%, 4.1 BB%, 52.4 GB%, 3.38 ERA, 3.71 FIP. That is a terrific line for most anyone, let alone a pitcher that barely touched a baseball the two previous seasons.

Taillon’s bread and butter is his two-seamer, which sits just under 95 MPH. He pounds the bottom of the strik.ezone with it, and commands it incredibly well. He also throws a mid-90s four-seamer, a low-80s curve, and a mid-80s change-up; that last pitch is inconsistent, which has led to some issues against left-handed hitters, who have hit .261/.306/.401 against Taillon.

Last Outing (vs. CHC on 4/16) – 7 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 6 K

Sunday (1:35 PM EST): LHP Jordan Montgomery vs. RHP Ivan Nova

Nova has made 14 starts with the Pirates, and has posted borderline absurd numbers. In addition to his 2.87 ERA (144 ERA+), Nova has a minuscule 0.8% walk rate (and staggering 20 K/BB), as he has walked just 3 batters in 84.2 IP. As per PITCHf/x, his pitch selection hasn’t changed all that much overall (though he has thrown more fastballs overall this year, it’s only three starts), nor has his velocity – so we’ll just have to chalk this one up to Ray Searage’s black magic.

The stuff is essentially the same as when we last saw Nova in pinstripes – a couple of low-90s fastballs, a low-80s curve, a mid-80s change-up, and a rarely used mid-80s slider. It’s his suddenly stellar command that has made all the difference in the world.

The Bullpen

The Pirates bullpen looks quite different this season, as three of their top-five most utilized relievers in 2016 (Mark Melancon, Jared Hughes, and Neftali Feliz) are no longer with the team. Longtime Pirate Tony Watson has taken over as the closer, with Daniel Hudson and Felipe Rivero handling the seventh and eight innings. The group currently has a 4.47 ERA, but that is heavily skewed by Antonio Bastardo’s 20.25 ERA.

Yankees Connection

Would it be hyperbole to call the Pirates Brian Cashman’s favorite trading partner? The two teams have completed five trades since 2012, when the Yankees sent A.J. Burnett packing in exchange for Exicardo Cayones and Diego Moreno. Most recently, Johnny Barbato was sent to Pittsburgh in exchange for cash or a player to be named later. Beyond that, we have:

Francisco Cervelli, now in his third season as the Pirates starting catcher;
Chris Stewart, now in his third season backing up Cervelli (and his fourth season with the team);
The aforementioned Nova;
Gerrit Cole, who was drafted by the Yankees in the first round of the 2008 draft, but chose to attend UCLA instead.

Who (Or What) to Watch

The prospect lover in me is stoked to see Tyler Glasnow on Friday night, and you should be, too. He’s wild at times, but his stuff is simply incredible, and he’s one of the few prospects/rookies with a semi-legitimate claim at a top-of-the-rotation ceiling. It isn’t always pretty – but he’ll pop the radar gun, and buckle some knees.

4/17 to 4/19 Series Preview: Chicago White Sox

April 17, 2017 by Domenic Lanza Leave a Comment

(Jason Miller/Getty Images North America)

The Yankees are in the midst of what may well be the closest thing to a perfect homestand that anyone could reasonably expect. There have been injuries and ups and downs, to be sure – but most everything is trending in the right direction, and one can’t ask for much more. The similarly rebuilding/reloading White Sox are next up on the docket.

The Last Time They Met

These two teams were significantly different the last time they met last July. The White Sox hosted the Yankees for a three-game set beginning on the Fourth of July, just three weeks prior to the Yankees hoisting the white flag. The Southsiders took two of three, despite trotting out James Shields in one of those wins, and with both Chris Sale and Jose Quintana sitting for the series. A few notes:

The Yankees went 0-for-13 with runners in scoring position in the first game of the series, an 8-2 loss. They seemed poised to make a comeback in the 8th, when they were down just 6-2 and Brian McCann and Starlin Castro (who went 4-for-4 with 2 doubles) reached safely to open the inning … and then Didi Gregorius (who also made three errors), Chase Headley, and Aaron Hicks struck out swinging in back-to-back-to-back at-bats.
The Yankees won the second game 9-0, cranking out 20 hits in the process. Alex Rodriguez (1-for-6) was the only starter to not reach base at least twice.
Michael Pineda started game three and went ‘Full Pineda’ in the second inning – he retired the first two batters, and then posted the following sequence: 1B-BB-1B-2B-2B. And then it was 4-o. They would go on to lose 5-2.

Injury Report

The 24-year-old Carlos Rodon, a popular breakout pick for 2017, is on the disabled list with a left biceps bursitis. White Sox fans are collectively holding their breath until he returns, which should be sometime in May. Starting catcher Geovany Soto was put on the DL just last week, as well, and will not be back for this series.

Melky Cabrera sat out this past weekend’s series against the Twins on paternity leave, to witness and celebrate the birth of his fourth child. He is slated return against the Yankees, though.

Their Story So Far

The White Sox were in what felt like a holding pattern for the better part of a decade. They were too close to contention to rebuild, it seemed, yet they had not made the playoffs since 2008 and few bought them as legitimate contenders. After finishing below .500 for the fourth consecutive season, however, the front office decided to blow it up this past offseason. They shipped ace Chris Sale to the Red Sox and Adam Eaton to the Nationals, and were still shopping Jose Quintana, David Robertson, Todd Frazier, and most everyone else over the age of 30 when the season began. Their farm system vaulted from bottom-five to top-five in the process, and it stands to get even better around this year’s trade deadline.

As a result of this, 2017 is a transitional season, and we will probably see top prospects Lucas Giolito, Yoan Moncada, Reynaldo Lopez, and others take their lumps at the big league level sooner rather than later. For now the White Sox are a 6-5 team on the strength of the best run prevention (2.71 ERA) in the American League.

The Lineup We Might See

Manager Robin Ventura has utilized fairly similar lineups thus far, with the only real changes coming due to injuries and Cabrera’s paternity leave. Barring something unforeseen, the Yankees will probably see a lineup that looks something like this:

Tyler Saladino, 2B
Tim Anderson, SS
Melky Cabrera, LF
Jose Abreu, 1B
Todd Frazier, 3B
Avisail Garcia, RF
Matt Davidson or Cody Asche, DH
Omar Narvaez or Kevan Smith, C
Leury Garcia or Jacob May, CF

Those last three slots might seem like cop-outs on my part, but the White Sox have been going with the hot hand at those positions, as nobody has stood out as of yet. None of those players have ever stood out in the past, either, which of course means that one will do serious damage against the Yankees this week.

The Pitchers We Will See

Monday (7:05 PM EST): LHP Derek Holland

Three years ago, the Rangers appeared to have unearthed a gem in Holland. The southpaw was coming off a 4.3 fWAR age-26 season, on the strength of 213 IP, 21.1 K%, 7.2 BB%, and a 120 ERA+, seemingly putting together all the flashes of potential he had shown for parts of four seasons. Unfortunately, injuries saw him miss the majority of 2014 and 2015, and he had an ineffectual at best 2016. The Rangers bought him out this off-season, and the White Sox signed him for $6 MM to eat innings at the back of the rotation.

They seem to have caught lightning in a bottle thus far, though, as the now 30-year-old has thrown quality starts in his first two outings. The former sinkerballer now prefers a low-90s four-seamer, and mixes in a low-80s slider, an upper-70s curveball, and mid-80s change-up.

Last Outing (vs. CLE on 4/12) – 6 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 4 BB, 4 K

Tuesday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Miguel Gonzalez

Yankees fans might be more familiar with Gonzalez than any other fan base, as we have seen him take the mound for the opposing team fourteen times, posting a 3.80 ERA in 85.1 IP along the way. The last time we saw him was July 6, 2016, when he pitched to the following line: 7 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 3 K. This is his sixth season in the majors, and he has been a league-average starter (107 ERA+ in 726 IP) from day one. That’s not bad for a guy that the Orioles signed as a minor league free agent back in 2012.

Gonzalez is something of a junkballer, working with two 90ish MPH fastballs, a mid-80s change-up, a mid-80s slider, and a mid-70s curveball. He’ll show all five pitches in most of his starts, so it’s safe to call him a true five-pitch pitcher.

Last Outing (vs. CLE on 4/13) – 4.2 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 4 BB, 5 K

Wednesday (7:05 PM EST): RHP Dylan Covey

Covey was the 14th overall pick in the 2010 amateur draft, as one of the most highly rated high school talents in the class. During his physical, however, doctors discovered that he had Type 1 Diabetes, which led to Covey foregoing a $1.6 MM signing bonus in order to attend college and learn how to cope with his condition. He entered the 2013 draft, where the A’s took him in the fourth round, and he spent the first four years of his professional career in their organization. He was left unprotected in this year’s Rule 5 draft, on the heels of an injury-riddled 2016, and the White Sox scooped him up. And despite having just 29.1 IP above High-A, he made his big league debut last week.

The 25-year-old works off of a heavy sinker in the low-90s, which he uses to rack up grounders. He also throws a slider, a curve, and a change-up, all of which he commands fairly well. Covey won’t pick up many strikeouts, though.

Last Outing (vs. MIN on 4/14) – 5.1 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 1 K

The Bullpen

The White Sox bullpen has been lights out thus far, pitching to a 1.43 ERA in 37.2 IP. Robertson and set-up man Zach Putnam have combined to toss 12 scoreless innings so far, allowing 3 hits and 0 walks, while striking out 18. Their bullpen was solid-average across the board last season, and most of the key components are back this year.

Yankees Connection

This section was thought up by Mike, and largely because of how many current White Sox have ties to the Yankees. To wit:

Melky Cabrera played for the Yankees from 2005 through 2009;
David Robertson played here from 2008 through 2014;
Anthony Swarzak tossed 31 below replacement-level innings for the Yankees last year;
He never made it to the show in pinstripes, but Tommy Kahnle was in the organization from 2010 through 2013;
Jose Quintana was in the Yankees organization from 2008 through 2011, and has probably caused many sleepless nights for Brian Cashman (though, who knows what he would have become without Don Cooper?).

Who (Or What) to Watch

Shortstop Tim Anderson was a consensus top-fifty prospect heading into 2016, and he earned his call to the majors in June. He was pretty good the rest of the way, accumulating 2.4 fWAR in 99 games. Anderson managed a solid-for-the-position 95 wRC+ on the strength of a solid power/speed combination, but his meager 3.0 BB% led to doubts that he could sustain even that level of production. The early returns in 2017 are awful, but the talent is too tantalizing to turn away from.