San Francisco Giants Archives - River Avenue Blues

Yankeemetrics: Bombers coasting out west (April 26-28)

April 29, 2019 by Katie Sharp

As RAB closes shop today, I personally wanted to thank everyone for their tremendous support of this website and my writing over the past four-plus years. It was truly an honor to contribute to this amazing site, to be able to write about my favorite team, and be a part of a really special and passionate community of fans. Keep following me on twitter @ktsharp for all my Yankees stats and analysis the rest of the season and more details on the future of Yankeemetrics.

April 26: When Gio Urshela is your cleanup hitter … all you do is win!
The Yankees got back in the win column on Friday night as they continued their road trip up the west coast to San Francisco and won their season-opening Interleague matchup, 7-3.

James Paxton ‘only’ struck out eight batters but still was solid in holding the Giants to five hits and three runs. Paxton has quietly been excellent this season in doing the things a pitcher can control on the mound (excluding his defense behind him) — strikeouts, walks and homers. After Friday’s start — among pitchers with at least 25 innings pitched — he led the AL in FIP (2.24), ranked third in strikeout rate (36.2%), was third in Strikeout-to-Walk ratio (5.1), and had allowed only three homers in 34 2/3 innings.

Luke Voit had another monster game, going 3-for-4 with 3 RBIs, including his eighth home run of the season. Voit’s dinger was a bomb over the center-field wall, another example of his ridiculous dead-center power.

Since the start of last season, he has a 1.067 slugging percentage and .533 isolated power to straightaway center, both the highest among all MLB players (min. 50 PA). It was also his fifth dead-center homer this season, tied with Pete Alonso for the most in the majors through Friday.

And because there can never be too many #LukeVoitFacts, we’ve got this for you to enjoy: He is the first Yankee with at least three hits and three RBI in a game against the Giants since Joe DiMaggio in Game 5 of the 1951 World Series.

April 27: The Kraken is unleashed
Welcome back, El Gary! The Yankees won their second in row on Saturday, 6-4, thanks to the big bat of Gary Sanchez and the stellar arm of J.A. Happ. The victory clinched their fourth series win in a row (yeah, remember when they lost four of their first five series to start the season?).

Happ delivered his best start of the season (7 IP, 0 runs, 5 hits, 0 walks, 2 strikeouts), a performance that earned him his first win and our Obscure Yankeemetric of the Series: He joined Randy Johnson as the only Yankee lefthanders to pitch at least seven shutout innings, give up no more than five hits and walk zero batters in an Interleague game. Randy did it in 2005 against the Cardinals and 2006 against the Braves.

Sanchez had only one hit in this game but it was a HUGE one – literally and on the scoreboard. He came to the plate in the fifth inning with the bases full and clobbered a 91-mph fastball deep into the seats in left-center for his first career grand slam. The 467-foot blast was the longest grand slam hit in the majors since Statcast distance tracking began in 2015, and the third-longest home run hit at Oracle Park in that span.

Although he’d never before gone deep with the bases full, Sanchez has been a productive hitter over the last three seasons in those situations. Since 2017 (through Saturday), he was 13-for-29 with 29 RBI and just two strikeouts in 32 plate appearances, and his .448 bases-loaded batting average was the fourth-best in MLB (min. 30 PA) in that span.

Let’s give Sanchez some more love with our most-awesome #FunFact of the Series: He is the second Yankee catcher ever to hit a grand slam in a National League ballpark. The other? Yogi Berra against the Brooklyn Dodgers at Ebbets Field in Game 2 of the 1956 World Series.

April 28: Bay Area brooms
The Yankees capped off their third sweep of the season with a 11-5 win on Sunday afternoon, continuing their scorching-hot streak over the last couple weeks. Since bottoming out on April 12 with a loss to the White Sox that dropped them to 5-8, the Yankees have the best record in baseball (12-3). And in that span, they also put three players on the IL — Greg Bird, Aaron Judge, Clint Frazier — while getting one player back (Gary Sanchez). The Little Pinstriped Engine That Could keeps chugging along!

For the millionth time this season, the Yankees raced out to an early lead, scoring two runs in each of the first three frames. Actually, it was the 21st time this year that the Yankees scored first. They are the only MLB team in the last 15 seasons to score first that many times in their first 28 games.

Luke Voit paced the offense with three hits, two runs scored and two RBIs, the third time in the last four games he’s had three hits. That’s pretty remarkable, considering he had three-or-more hits in just five of his first 133 career games.

Gleyber Torres and Gary Sanchez put an exclamation point on the win with a pair of homers in the third and sixth innings. Torres’ blast was a two-run shot — 15 of his 29 career homers (52%) have come with men on base, a rate that is well above the MLB average of 39%.

Sanchez’s dinger was the 79th of his career, moving him into a tie for 50th place on the all-time franchise list (reminder, he has played only 279 career games). It was also his 59th longball since his first full season in 2017, five more than any other major-league catcher in that span. And we’ll end with a ridiculous fun note: Sanchez has eight homers in 15 games this season, an 86-homer pace over 162 games!

4/26 to 4/28 Series Preview: San Francisco Giants

April 26, 2019 by Derek Albin

Well, this is it: the last series preview here on RAB. How about finishing up this blog’s final days with a sweep in the City by the Bay?

Their Story So Far

It’s been a sluggish start for San Francisco. They’re 11-14, even with the Rockies for last place in the NL West. The Giants can’t hit a lick – they own a putrid 64 wRC+, second worst in baseball. However, their pitching has kept them in ballgames. Thanks to the majors’ fifth-lowest team ERA, their run differential is only -8.

San Francisco just completed a quick two-game sweep against the Blue Jays in Toronto. Yesterday was a travel day for the team, so they’re going to be rested for the upcoming series against the Yanks.

Injury Report

Only one player is on the Giants’ injured list: Johnny Cueto. Must be nice, huh? Not nice for Cueto, of course, who’s expected to miss all of this season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Anyway, San Francisco is literally the polar opposite of the Yankees’ injury situation.

Player Spotlight: Buster Posey

Frankly, there’s not much to write home about for the Giants this season. There are aging remnants of its former championship clubs who are certainly fan favorites out in San Francisco, but when it comes to up and coming talent, there’s not much to be excited about. So, let’s check in with future Hall of Famer Buster Posey, even though he’s far from the player he once was.

The Giants’ catcher took his first significant step into his decline phase last season when he recorded a 106 wRC+ and 2.4 fWAR in 105 games. That’s still very good for a catcher! It’s just not what we’ve grown accustomed to for Posey. That WAR total was half his 2017 mark, and well below his customary 6 or 7 wins he had recorded annually since 2013.

This season, Posey is off to a poor start. In 82 plate appearances, the 32 year-old owns an 81 wRC+ and a strikeout rate (17.1 percent) well above his career mark (12 percent). His power is virtually gone (one home run) but he is still reaching base via walk (9.8 percent). He still adds value defensively behind the dish.

On the bright side, he’s warming up a bit. As of ten days ago, Posey had a .192/.263/.269 batting line (46 wRC+). His 116 wRC+ since that date isn’t jaw-dropping, but it’s certainly much more in line with what we’d expect from him. It’d be nice to see him remain a strong player during the decline phase of his career, albeit not this weekend.

Potential Lineup

There are a handful of moving parts in San Francisco’s batting order as a result of handedness, so they haven’t had a consistent lineup thus far. Since the Yankees are tossing two lefties to begin the weekend, below is something along the lines of what we can expect during this series. That means lefty-swingers like Joe Panik (48 wRC+) and Gerardo Parra (51 wRC+) might not be in the lineup tonight or tomorrow, but we could see them off the bench. They’ll join Pablo Sandoval (167 wRC+) and Erik Kratz (45 wRC+) on the pine.

Steven Duggar, RF (.230/.269/.370, 68 wRC+)
Tyler Austin, 1B/LF (.286/.375/.286, 90 wRC+)
Buster Posey C (.230/.305/.365, 81 wRC+)
Brandon Belt 1B/LF (.222/.330/.494, 118 wRC+)
Evan Longoria 3B (.222/.255/.400, 71 wRC+)
Brandon Crawford SS (.202/.280/.226, 40 wRC+)
Yangervis Solarte 2B (.205/.255/.295, 42 wRC+)
Kevin Pillar CF (.232/.257/.449, 77 wRC+)
Pitcher Spot

Belt has been their only respectable hitter all season. Yikes. That isn’t to say Posey isn’t a threat, but just a bit of exasperation at how bad this offense has been. Of course, noted Yankee-killer Longoria will probably have a big weekend. At least he won’t get to face Sabathia.

Pitching Matchups

Friday (10:15 PM ET): LHP James Paxton (vs. Giants) vs. LHP Madison Bumgarner (vs. Yankees)

Potential trade deadline target Madison Bumgarner is still good, but he’s not longer the same guy he was earlier this decade. He’s striking out hitters less often than his prime and has become more susceptible to the long ball. Through five starts this year, he has a respectable 3.66 ERA and 3.93 FIP, but has allowed 5 homers in 32 innings.

Once upon a time, Bumgarner could hit 95 or 96 when necessary. That isn’t the case anymore. Those were the days when his four-seamer was still his primary option. Now he leans on a cutter and sinker much more.

You’ll notice that his quality of contact metrics are ugly. This is a pretty new development for him. He’s generally kept his exit velocities under 88 MPH since Statcast began tracking such numbers, but that has ballooned to 90 MPH this season. His hard hit percentage is up to 42.7 percent as well, almost 8 percent higher than last season. It’s early so take it for what it’s worth, but that’s definitely a troublesome trend.

Bumgarner has a reputation for being a good hitter despite a lifetime 48 wRC+ (81 wRC+ since 2014, though). Nonetheless, 18 homers as a pitcher in 614 plate appearances certainly ain’t bad. Given the state of the Giants offense, Bumgarner seems like a pretty big boost on the days he pitches.

Saturday (4:05 PM ET) LHP J.A. Happ (vs. Giants) vs. Derek Holland (vs. Yankees)

Last season was something of a renaissance for Holland. After a few years of struggling to find his early decade form that he had with Texas, Holland bounced back to record a 3.57 ERA and 3.87 FIP in 171.1 innings for San Francisco in 2018. He’s yet to rekindle that magic this season. In 27 innings thus far, he’s given up six homers. Somehow, he’s managed to keep his ERA to 4.33 in spite of the gopher balls, though his 5.04 FIP tells another story.

Perhaps what’s kept Holland’s ERA down is that high strikeout rate — 30.6 percent — which well exceeds his career norms. This, despite a heater that comes in around 91 miles per hour. The days of him throwing in the mid-to-high 90s are long gone, yet he’s still managed to punch hitters out at a high frequency.

Holland’s two weaknesses are his control and batted ball profile. He’s walked a hair under 12 percent of opponents this year and does not generate much weak contact. His groundball rate is a career worst 33 percent and hitters are barreling the ball 21 percent of the time, which is not a recipe for success.

Sunday (4:05 PM ET) RHP Domingo German (vs. Giants) vs. RHP Dereck Rodriguez (vs. Yankees)

Pudge’s son has pitched well early in his career despite a lack of overpowering repertoire. Since debuting last year, Rodriguez has posted a 2.95 ERA in nearly 150 innings, though that nearly beats his FIP by a full run (3.79). He basically throws the kitchen sink: four-seamer, changeup, curveball, cutter, and sinker in order to induce a bunch of weak contact.

His hard hit percentage and exit velocity aren’t anything overwhelmingly impressive. Yet, he draws a bunch of grounders (45.8 percent) and very few barreled balls (2.4 percent). Rodriguez is around the zone a whole bunch too. He doesn’t walk many batters and works around the edges pretty often.

There’s nothing in Rodriguez’s game that’s terribly exciting, but he does seem to be a perfect fit for his team. Strikeouts are always great, but they’re not overly valuable in a pitcher’s park like San Francisco. Further, weak contact will play anywhere.

Bullpen Status

The Giants own baseball’s lowest bullpen ERA and FIP this year, and it’s not particularly close. Bet you didn’t expect that. Former Yankee Mark Melancon is not their closer, even though he was originally signed to be. It’s Will Smith’s job, and he’s a perfect six-for-six in save opportunities so far. The lefty has a sparking 1.04 ERA and 29 percent strikeout rate.

Melancon hasn’t allowed a run yet in ten appearances, but he’s not the dominant reliever he once was with Pittsburgh. If he keeps this up, he’ll certainly earn his way back into high leverage innings, but right now the most important outs have been recorded by Tony Watson and Reyes Moronta (before getting the ball to Smith). Moronta is a fireballer who is striking everyone out this season (40.9 percent) whereas Watson has been a ground-ball heavy southpaw out of the pen. The Giants will also run out former Rangers closer Sam Dyson along with Nick Vincent, Trevor Gott, and Travis Bergen. Their relief corps should be fresh since Thursday was an off day.

Keys for the Series

Get an early lead

The Giants bullpen wasn’t necessarily expected to be this good, but there’s no denying their success thus far. They have some name-brand relievers who are fresh from off-days yesterday and Monday, so avoiding any come from behind situations would be nice.

Kick the Giants offense while it’s down

All three Yankees starters this series have pitched better of late, and given the upcoming opponent, there’s no reason for that not to continue. This is exactly the type of team (and ballpark) that should result in strong starting performances from Paxton, Happ, and German.

Health

I’m just going to copy what Steven wrote in the Angels series preview: Can we go one series without another major injury? Is that too much to ask?

The Giants are one of the few possible trade suitors for Jacoby Ellsbury and they’ve “talked about” a deal

February 5, 2019 by Mike

The Yankees won 100 games last season despite getting nothing — literally zero plate appearances and zero defensive innings — from their third highest paid player. Jacoby Ellsbury was hurt all year but don’t blame him for his contract. That’s on the Yankees. How could he say no to that offer? The team’s success without Ellsbury shows how little the Yankees need him right now. He’s a non-factor.

Ellsbury had season-ending hip surgery in August and he is questionable for Opening Day according to Brian Cashman’s most recent update, which came in October and is not all that recent. The Yankees do have an open bench spot and Ellsbury could slot in there. It’s also possible Ellsbury has already played his final game as a Yankee. He’s so far out of the picture right now that the club could release him once healthy and move forward with Clint Frazier (or someone else) in that bench spot.

Despite his lost 2018 season, there have been some trade rumblings involving Ellsbury this winter. The Yankees and Mariners discussed an Ellsbury-for-Robinson Cano swap at some point, and Cashman said other clubs have asked about Ellsbury in what he called “money-laundering” scenarios. A bad contract-for-bad contract swap, basically. Ellsbury is still on the roster, so obviously those conversations didn’t go anywhere, but they did happen.

According to Buster Olney, the Giants have “talked about” Ellsbury as they pursue outfield help. Talked to the Yankees about Ellsbury? Only talked internally about Ellsbury? Who knows. San Francisco has considered Ellsbury. That much we know. Whether they engaged the Yankees in trade talks is another matter. Let’s talk about this a bit.

1. What do the Giants have to offer? As you’d expect, Olney says a bad contract-for-bad contract swap would be the likely outcome. You can forget unloading Ellsbury’s entire contract, or even most of it. Maybe the Yankees would eat enough salary to turn him into a $5M per year player and get a prospect back? I suppose. Some cash savings and a prospect is a good outcome in my book.

Anyway, the Giants have a lot of bad contracts right now. They’re currently where the Phillies were in 2012. Lots of money tied up in declining players with a crash coming. The crash has come already, really. San Francisco lost 98 games in 2017 and 89 games in 2018. Ellsbury is owed approximately $47.5M the next two years with a $21.86M luxury tax hit. Some possible matches:

Johnny Cueto: $68M through 2021 ($21.67M luxury tax hit)
Jeff Samardzija: $39.6M through 2020 ($18M luxury tax hit)
Brandon Belt: $51.6M through 2021 ($17.2M luxury tax hit)
Brandon Crawford: $45.6M through 2021 ($12.5M luxury tax hit)
Evan Longoria: $73.18M through 2022 ($11.17M luxury tax hit)

Hard pass on Longoria, who is signed for another four years and is declining every way possible. Offensively (.285 OBP in 2018), defensively (-4.4 UZR), you name it. Crawford has slipped a bit since his 2014-16 peak but is still a quality two-way shortstop and those are tough to find. I don’t see why the Giants would trade him for Ellsbury. It doesn’t make sense for them on the field or financially.

Buster Posey is recovering from his own hip surgery and will presumably see more time at first base going forward. That figures to make Belt expendable and Ellsbury-for-Belt would work for the Yankees. They’d get a lefty first base bat and the total salary is close to a wash, though it’d be spread across three years rather than two. Ellsbury and Greg Bird for Belt? Maybe? Possibly? I feel like San Francisco could fetch more for Belt. Maybe I’m wrong.

Ellsbury-for-Cueto would be very complicated. For starters, Cueto is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is unlikely to pitch this year, so he does nothing for the 2019 Yankees. He’d be a pickup for 2020-21. Secondly, Ellsbury and Cueto have nearly identical luxury tax hits, but Cueto has another year on his contract and more money coming to him. I think the Giants would jump all over a straight-up trade given the money situation.

An Ellsbury-for-Cueto deal would require some work to make both sides happy financially. I could see the Yankees taking on salary in exchange for a lower luxury tax hit (i.e. Ellsbury-for-Belt). Taking on salary for the same luxury tax hit though? Nah. From a baseball perspective, the Yankees would swap an outfielder they don’t really need for a potential 2020-21 rotation option. Someone to replace CC Sabathia next year and provide depth. Could be cool?

To me, Ellsbury-for-Samardzija is the most realistic scenario. A straight up trade would give the Yankees a serviceable swingman and save money, so, in that sense, go for it. The Yankees would presumably have to eat money to make this work though. The Yankees trade an outfielder they don’t need for a possible swingman. The Giants trade a starter they (probably) don’t need for an outfielder. Both sides would deal from depth to address a weakness.

San Francisco has several bad contracts on the books and multiple outfield openings, so, on paper, they’re probably the best fit for an Ellsbury trade. That doesn’t mean a trade will happen, of course. Ellsbury-for-Samardzija makes the most sense and seems most doable to me. Ellsbury-for-Cueto would be really complicated, Ellsbury-for-Belt or Ellsbury-for-Crawford strikes me as a bad fit for the Giants, and Ellsbury-for-Longoria gets a hard no from me.

2. What about Ellsbury’s insurance? This might be the single biggest hangup in an Ellsbury swap. The Yankees have insurance on Ellsbury’s contract — they reportedly recouped $15.9M of his $21.14M salary last year — though that doesn’t help the luxury tax situation. It does save the team real dollars though. Why trade Ellsbury for Samardzija when you could potentially save millions through insurance, and sign a Samardzija-caliber pitcher on the cheap?

We haven’t had an update on Ellsbury’s hip surgery rehab in a while now and it could be that he isn’t expected to miss enough time for the insurance policy to kick in. Usually the player has to spend so many days on the disabled list before the insurance company starts to pay out. In a screwed up way, Ellsbury missing time makes him less valuable to other teams (because he’s still hurt) but more valuable to the Yankees (because insurance pays out).

3. Couldn’t the Giants just sign a free agent? I mean, yeah. This is what I don’t understand. Cot’s says the Giants are $34.4M under the $206M luxury tax threshold. Couldn’t they just sign Adam Jones or Curtis Granderson for $5M or so and get a healthy outfielder without going through the hassle of a bad contract-for-bad contract trade? If they could unload future dollars with a Cueto or Longoria deal, I’d get it. Otherwise … why?

Perhaps money in San Francisco is tighter than I realize. They did reset their luxury tax rate last year, so that’s good, but they also saw attendance decline for the fourth straight year. The World Series(es) honeymoon seems to be over. Plus every team is cutting payroll nowadays. Why sign a free agent when you could trade for some other team’s busted player and not add payroll? Unless it’s a Cueto or Longoria situation, where significant future dollars are cleared up, I don’t get whey the Giants would want Ellsbury over a free agent. Then again, it’s not my job to get it, so there you go.

4. Would Ellsbury waive his no-trade clause? Beats me. The Giants are pretty bad, but they are closer to Ellsbury’s home in Arizona and his family in Oregon, plus there is a (much) clearer path to playing time with San Francisco than there is with the Yankees. For what it’s worth, Samardzija (eight teams) and Belt (ten teams) have limited no-trade clauses. Crawford has a full no-trade clause and neither Longoria nor Cueto have no-trade protection.

* * *

Olney’s report is quite vague (isn’t every hot stove rumor vague these days?) so it’s unclear how much interest the Giants have in Ellsbury. Is this something they kicked around the office the way every team discusses every player each offseason? Or did they have sincere “hey, this could work for us” talks? The rumor passes the sniff test in that the Giants need outfielders and they have ammo for a bad contract-for-bad contract trade.

On paper, the Yankees have no real use for Ellsbury right now. That was even more true last year, yet there was Jace Peterson in left field nine games into the season, and Shane Robinson in right field much of August. If the Yankees can work out a bad contract-for-bad contract trade and turn Ellsbury into a piece that better fits the roster, great. If not, they’ll wait until he’s healthy and recoup as much as insurance money as possible in the meantime, then figure out whether he fits the roster.

Hot Stove Rumors: Machado, Gray, Kahnle, Holder, Roman

January 18, 2019 by Mike

Hurry up and sign, Manny. I’m running out of photo options. (Getty)

Every time I say I think the Yankees are done with big offseason moves, they sign someone else. It was Adam Ottavino yesterday, DJ LeMahieu last week, and Zach Britton the week before that. I’ll have some thoughts on the Ottavino deal early next week. Until then, here are the latest hot stove rumblings.

Yankees have made Machado an offer?

Manuel Machado, Manny’s father, told Hector Gomez his son has received offers from several teams, including the Yankees. “Manny has received offers from different teams. Yankees, Dodgers, Phillies. Now there’s a lot of interest from the White Sox,” said Manuel. Not that long ago it was reported the Yankees hadn’t made Machado a “concrete” offer, which is not a big deal. If there’s an offer in front of him now though, it indicates the Yankees are getting serious.

I’m passing this nugget along because it’s out there, so you might as well read it on my site, but I caution you to be extremely careful not to read too much into these comments. Machado’s father has an obvious incentive to pump up Manny’s market — it’s good for business when the Yankees and Dodgers are involved in the bidding — and get his son the best deal possible. The Dodgers haven’t been connected to Machado at all this winter. Now they’ve made an offer? Not sure about that. You’re welcome to believe what you want. This doesn’t strike me as all that reliable.

Yankees getting closer to trading Gray

According to Jack Curry and Jon Heyman, the Yankees are getting closer to trading Sonny Gray and it could happen soon. They’re talking to several teams with the Giants newly into the mix. That makes sense. Their new president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi and new pitching coach Curt Young know Sonny from their days with the Athletics. San Francisco seems perfectly positioned to buy low on Gray, then sign him long-term if he bounces back.

I have the Yankees’ luxury tax payroll at roughly $228.5M following the Ottavino deal. Cot’s has them at $220.2M. My number includes a larger estimate for benefits and also something for in-season injury/September call-ups. Anyway, point is the Yankees are dangerously close to the $226M second luxury tier, if not over it already. Now that the Ottavino deal is in place, trading Gray and finding a cheaper swingman to get the payroll in order feels inevitable. For 40-man roster purposes, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Sonny moved before the Ottavino deal is made official.

Kahnle, Holder drawing interest

2018 Kahnle in picture form. (Hannah Foslien/Getty)

According to Heyman, the Yankees are getting calls about righty relievers Tommy Kahnle and Jonathan Holder. I’m not surprised teams are looking to buy low on Kahnle. Seeing whether he can bounce back this year is worthwhile, but no way would I make him off-limits in trade talks. He’s owed $1.3875M this year and shedding that money could be a priority. Holder had a very nice 2018 and is both dirt cheap and under team control another five years. Of course teams are asking about him.

With Britton re-signed and Ottavino agreeing to a deal, the Yankees are in better position to consider trading away a reliever. It’s a position of depth. Trading Holder or especially Kahnle when you have Britton, Ottavino, Aroldis Chapman, Dellin Betances, and Chad Green is an easy pill to swallow. The Yankees love their big velocity bat-missers and Holder is decidedly not that. Could they cash him in as a trade chip when his value is as high as it’s ever been and maybe as high as it’ll ever get? Hmmm.

Yankees trade Locastro to D’Backs

Earlier this week the Yankees traded utility man Tim Locastro to the Diamondbacks for lefty pitching prospect Ronald Roman and cash, the team announced. Locastro had been designated for assignment last week to clear a 40-man roster spot for LeMahieu. The Yankees got him from the Dodgers for 2015 third round pick Drew Finley earlier this offseason. Locastro, like Hanser Alberto, didn’t make it to Spring Training after being acquired earlier in the winter and spending a few weeks on the 40-man roster. I’m going to start calling this The Dan Otero Club.

Anyway, Roman is a just turned 17-year-old kid the D’Backs signed as an international free agent last July. He has not yet made his professional debut. He’ll do that this year. Roman was a small bonus signing and I can’t find any information on the kid. Sorry. Roman is almost certainly a player the Yankees wanted to sign last July but didn’t because either the D’Backs beat them to him (maybe) or because they ran out of bonus pool money (probably). Either way, he’s in the organization now. In a roundabout way the Yankees turned Finley, a busted prospect, into a young lottery ticket arm.

The Cardinals, the Athletics, and two recent moves that could potentially impact the Yankees

December 26, 2018 by Mike

Baseball is a zero-sum game. There are only so many wins to go around and every win you add to your roster is a win you take away from everyone else. Everything is interconnected. The Yankees traded for James Paxton? Well, that impacted how the Mariners proceeded with the rest of their offseason, and thus how several other teams proceeded with their offseasons. Everything affects everything else.

In the annual mad transaction rush before the holidays last week, several moves were made that have an indirect impact on the Yankees. Some are more applicable to the Yankees than others, of course, but all those moves do change the offseason calculus for Brian Cashman & Co. Here are two recent transactions and their potential trickle-down effect on the Yankees.

Cardinals sign Andrew Miller

The Cardinals gave Miller a two-year contract with a vesting option to serve as their primary high-leverage reliever. He might close, he might set up, he might do a little of both. Miller joins flamethrower Jordan Hicks and rookie Dakota Hudson in the late innings for St. Louis. The Yankees reportedly had interest in a reunion with Miller and now he’s no longer available. Stinks.

Miller’s deal with the Cardinals is notable because, according to Alex Pavlovic, the Giants had been waiting for him to sign before exploring opportunities to trade their own lefty relievers, specifically Will Smith and Tony Watson. All the teams that lost out on Miller — that includes the Yankees, obviously — could now shift gears and discuss Smith and Watson with San Francisco. They might be the best lefties on the market other than Zach Britton.

Smith, 29, returned from Tommy John surgery and threw 53 innings with a 2.55 ERA (2.07 FIP) and very good strikeout (33.8%) and walk (7.1%) rates in 2018. Remove intentional walks and Smith had a 5.4% walk rate. That’s about as well as you could reasonably expect a pitcher to perform in his first year back from elbow reconstruction. Smith will be a free agent next winter and MLBTR projects a $4.1M salary in 2019. A bargain for a reliever of this caliber in his final arbitration year.

The 33-year-old Watson had a 2.59 ERA (2.45 FIP) in 66 innings this past season, and he too posted strong strikeout (27.6%) and walk (5.4%) rates. He was primarily a sinker guy with the Pirates back in the day but is now more of a four-seamer/slider pitcher, which has led to more strikeouts and fewer grounders. Watson has an unusual contract. He’s guaranteed only $9M from 2018-19 but a boatload of incentives could nearly double it.

The Yankees tried to sign Watson last offseason. Barring a change of heart (always possible), they likely still have some lingering interest. Watson’s contract is complicated and his $4.5M luxury tax hit could quickly become $7M thanks to the bonuses (the exact bonus criteria is unknown), but maybe that’s not a dealbreaker. Smith is younger and cheaper, and he was better this past season. That said, he’s only a year removed from Tommy John surgery.

Watson and/or Smith would both be strong additions to the bullpen and we know the Yankees are looking for two relievers. They may be left-handed, but they’re not strict left-on-left matchup guys. They can work full innings. Now that Miller’s off the board and the Giants are ready to gauge the market on their relievers, the Yankees could touch base and rekindle their interest in Watson, or try for Smith.

Athletics trade for Jurickson Profar

Profar was the centerpiece of my 2018-19 Offseason Plan but we never did hear anything about the Yankees having interest in him. Not this offseason, anyway. We’ve certainly heard it in the past. Instead, the rebuilding Rangers sent Profar to the Athletics in a three-team trade with the Rays last week. Long story short, Texas traded Profar for four Double-A prospects and some international bonus money.

The trade means two things for the Athletics. One, they will not re-sign Jed Lowrie. They have their second baseman in Profar. “Jed was huge … I cannot overstate how important Jed was to this team, and we certainly wish him nothing but the best as his career moves forward,” said A’s GM David Forst to Chris Haft following the trade. Profar will take over at second base and Oakland will redirect their money to starting pitching.

And two, longtime top prospect Franklin Barreto still doesn’t have a place to play. I thought the A’s would move on from Lowrie and install Barreto at second base, but nope, they added Profar. The soon-to-be 23-year-old Barreto has been a consensus top 100 prospect four years running and, prior to the 2018 season, Baseball America (subs. req’d) ranked him as the 43rd best prospect in the game. Here’s a snippet of their scouting report:

Originally a shortstop, Barreto has spent time at second base in the minors and majors. He has the arm and range to play shortstop in the bigs, but is better suited for second because his arm at short can be a little erratic. As a hitter, he uses the whole field and has more power than you’d expect from someone his size (5-foot-10, 190 lbs.). He needs to improve his plate discipline to get the most from his above-average bat and surprising power. His plus speed makes him a basestealing threat … If he can become a bit more polished, he can be a first-division regular at second base.

Barreto has had some cups of coffee with the A’s the last two years, hitting .215/.252/.424 (79 wRC+) with seven homers in 151 MLB plate appearances. He’s spent most of the last two seasons in Triple-A and is a career .284/.342/.458 (113 wRC+) hitter with 34 homers in 192 games at the level. It seems like it’s time to see what Barreto can do at the MLB level, you know? Instead, the A’s traded for Profar to play second base.

I don’t blame Oakland one bit. As a small market team, their windows to win are relatively short, and Profar is much better able to help them capitalize on their current window than Barreto. And besides, it’s not like Profar is an older veteran. He’s a 25-year-old former super-elite prospect who seemed to come into his own this past season. There’s a reason he was included in my offseason plan. It appears Profar is about to really break out.

Anyway, the Profar trade means Lowrie has one less suitor, and it may mean Barreto is available in a trade. The Yankees need a middle infielder and they could now pursue Lowrie or Barreto. The A’s really need rotation help. Is there a Sonny Gray-for-Barreto trade framework that makes sense? Oakland has interest in a reunion with Sonny, remember. And if the two teams can’t find common ground in a Barreto trade, is Lowrie’s price right for the Yankees now that the A’s are out of the picture?

* * *

I thought about including the Dodgers releasing Homer Bailey in here as well but nah. He’s pitched so poorly the last few seasons (6.25 ERA and 5.13 FIP in 231.2 innings from 2014-18) that, even at the pro-rated portion of the league minimum as a released player, he doesn’t have many (any?) redeeming qualities. Yeah, Bailey would be a low risk pickup, but it’s also low reward. The Yankees have signed worse pitchers though, so who knows.

The Bailey thing would be whatever. Low cost, low risk, low impact, etc. The Giants putting their top lefty relievers on the trade market and Lowrie having one fewer suitor are not insignificant offseason developments, however. Ditto the Barreto thing if the Athletics do make him available. The Miller signing and Profar trade had nothing to do with the Yankees directly, but those moves do have a domino effect around the league, and the Yankees could be among the teams that benefit.

Hot Stove Rumors: Diaz, Gray, Bumgarner, Syndergaard, Goldy

November 28, 2018 by Mike

The rumors are starting to come in steadily now, and, in fact, player visits are going down. Patrick Corbin visited the Phillies earlier this week — they had the obligatory scoreboard photoshop ready to go — and tomorrow he’ll be in New York to visit the Yankees, according to Joel Sherman. For what it’s worth, Andy Martino hears Corbin is not expected to drag out his free agency. He could sign sooner rather than later. We’ll see. Here are the latest hot stove rumors.

Yankees showing strong interest in Diaz

The Yankees were among the teams showing the strongest interest in Mariners closer Edwin Diaz, reports Joel Sherman. The Braves, Mets, Phillies, and Red Sox were also involved, though Sherman says everyone thus far has balked at taking on Robinson Cano to get Diaz. Presumably the more money you take on in Cano — he’s owed $120M the next five years — the less you have to give up in prospects to get Diaz. “What are those teams willing to part with in dollars to (get Diaz)?” a source said to Sherman.

Diaz, 25 in March, has four years of team control remaining and he is electric. This season he posted a 1.96 ERA (1.61 FIP) with 44.3% strikeouts and 6.1% walks in 73.1 innings. He is on the short list of the best relievers in the game. The Yankees are said to want two relievers and Diaz would certainly be an upgrade to the bullpen. With Justus Sheffield gone, I’m not sure the Yankees have the prospects to win a Diaz bidding war, not unless they put Miguel Andujar or Gleyber Torres on the table. Taking on Cano’s deal might be their only way to get Diaz.

Mariners wanted Gray in Paxton deal

Another Yankees-Mariners nugget. Been a lot of them these last few weeks. Anyway, according to Ken Rosenthal (subs. req’d), the Mariners wanted Sonny Gray in addition to Sheffield in the James Paxton trade. The Yankees balked because enough other teams are showing interest in Gray that they believe they can maximize their return by trading him and Sheffield separately. Obviously the two sides got the Paxton deal done without Sonny.

The Athletics, Reds, Braves, Padres, Rangers, and Twins have all shown interest in Gray this offseason. We can now add the Mariners to that list. Wouldn’t it be something if the Yankees could build an Edwin Diaz trade package — or even a Jean Segura trade package — around Gray and, say, Estevan Florial? Plus a secondary piece or two? I expect the Yankees to get a decent return for Gray. Using him to get a true impact guy like Diaz (or Segura!) would be an A+ move in my book.

Giants open to trading Bumgarner

According to Jon Morosi, the Giants are willing to discuss trade scenarios involving lefty Madison Bumgarner. The Yankees were not mentioned as a suitor — the Braves and Phillies are said to have touched base with San Francisco — but I’m certain they’ll show interest. They want another starting pitcher, and remember, the Yankees were “in the hunt” for Bumgarner at the trade deadline. I am a tad skeptical the Giants would actually trade a franchise icon, but it would make sense given their current situation and the fact he’s a year away from free agency.

Jeff Sullivan wrote a post this week detailing Bumgarner’s decline. He’s still quite good — Bumgarner did have a 3.26 ERA (3.99 FIP) in 129.2 innings around a fluke finger injury (hit by a comebacker) this past season — but his velocity, swing-and-miss rate, and walk rate are trending down big time. I mean, look at this. Yikes. Bumgarner is still only 29, but he has a lot of innings on his arm, and he might be entering his Felix Hernandez decline phase. That said, there’s only one year and $12M on his contract, and the Yankees wouldn’t need him to be their ace or even their No. 2 starter. Depending on the asking price, rolling the dice on one year of Bumgarner could make an awful lot of sense.

Yankees not in on Syndergaard

Mets righty Noah Syndergaard is available but the Yankees are not among the teams showing interest, reports Martino. Maybe the front office change in Flushing makes it possible, but a Yankees-Mets trade of this caliber? I can’t see it. For the Mets, trading Syndergaard to the Yankees would be an ownership decision, not a front office decision, and I can’t see the Wilpons signing off on that.

Hypothetically, I think Syndergaard is one of the few pitchers the Yankees would be willing to trade Andujar or Torres to acquire. Syndergaard has had some injury problems the last two years, but he has no-doubt ace upside, and those guys are extremely rare. Three years of control with that potential? Hard to pass that up, even if you have to give up an Andujar or Torres. You’ve gotta give something to get something, after all. Like I said though, I can’t see a Yankees-Mets trade of this caliber going down.

Yankees not pursuing Goldschmidt

Yet another contradictory Paul Goldschmidt rumor. Rosenthal (subs. req’d) reports the Yankees are not pursuing the Diamondbacks’ first baseman at this time. They prefer a lefty bat and don’t see first base as a top priority right now. A few weeks ago we heard the Yankees didn’t have interest in Goldschmidt, then, earlier this week, it was reported they pushed Sheffield in trade talks with Arizona. That was a secondhand report though. I’m inclined to believe the “they’re not really pursuing him” rumors.

It’s more interesting to me that the Yankees, at least according to Rosenthal, do not consider first base a top priority at the moment. Greg Bird stunk last year, and while Luke Voit was awesome, his track record is basically one month, and that month is September, when weird things happen. There are always cheap first base stopgap types available in the days leading up to Spring Training — what are the odds Lucas Duda signs before February? — so if the Yankees want some first base depth, they’ll be able to find it. Guys like Goldschmidt don’t become available often though.

Sorting through possible trade partners for Sonny Gray

October 24, 2018 by Mike

Once the offseason really gets going in a few weeks, we’ll all focus on who the Yankees will add over the winter. Manny Machado? Bryce Harper? Patrick Corbin? Mystery players? Brian Cashman has said the rotation will be the “focus point” this winter and that is no surprise given the state of the starting staff. The Yankees also need to figure out left field, the infield without Didi Gregorius, and also reinforce the bullpen.

While we understandably spend an unhealthy about of time looking at who the Yankees could acquire this winter, we also have to remember the Yankees are trying to subtract a player as well. That player: Sonny Gray. Gray has been a colossal disappointment in pinstripes (4.51 ERA and 4.40 FIP in 195.2 innings) and Cashman Has made it clear the Yankees will look to trade Gray this winter. He was unusually candid at his end-of-season press conference.

“It hasn’t worked out thus far,” said Cashman at that press conference. “I think he’s extremely talented. We’ll enter the winter, unfortunately, open-minded to a relocation. To maximize his abilities, it would be more likely best somewhere else. If I do find a match, you’re gonna see what we had hoped to see here … Someone, if they trade for him, is gonna get the player we wanted. I fully expect that.”

Cashman made a point of saying he won’t give Gray away — what’s he supposed to say? — but, clearly, the Yankees want to move him. Usually in these cases the GM says it’s up to the team to help the player figure it out. Cashman skipped that entirely. Having listened to Cashman and Aaron Boone and Larry Rothschild all season, I sense a lot of frustration here, and the Yankees are ready to move on. I’m not surprised.

As a 28-year-old starting pitcher with a good track record — even after last season, Sonny has a 3.66 ERA (3.74 FIP) in 900.2 big league innings — and a relatively low salary (projected $9.1M in 2019), I get the feeling the Yankees will have no trouble finding potential trade partners for Gray. And remember, he was great outside Yankee Stadium this year (3.17 ERA and 2.65 FIP). Teams will notice. If Sonny were on any other team, wouldn’t we look at him as a possible buy-low candidate? Sure we would. That’s how other teams see him.

With the caveat that things can be unpredictable in the offseason, I’ve singled out several clubs who appear to be possible trade suitors for Gray. Even though he’ll be a free agent next offseason, I don’t think Gray’s market is limited to contending teams. A rebuilding club could be looking at him as a buy-low candidate they could flip for more at the trade deadline, or sign long-term. The Reds traded for Matt Harvey, right? Same idea. Let’s dive in. (Reminder: My trade proposal sucks.)

Chicago White Sox

Why would they want Gray? The rebuild hit a bump in the road this season. Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson didn’t take that step forward, Lucas Giolito went backwards, and Michael Kopech went down with Tommy John surgery. The ChiSox are always looking to acquire high-end talent though — they reportedly made a run at Machado at the deadline — and Don Cooper is a highly regarded pitching coach with a history of fixing pitchers. Getting Sonny on the cheap and seeing whether he can be a viable long-term rotation piece could interest the White Sox.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Carson Fulmer? Eh, that’s one headache for another. Fulmer hasn’t even pitched well in Triple-A. The only thing he has going for him right now is the fading “eighth overall pick in 2015” shine. Unless a deal gets expanded, the return here would most likely be a prospect(s). Not sure there’s a Gray for big leaguer trade that makes sense, not unless the ChiSox are willing to sell super low on Giolito, which kinda defeats the purpose.

Cincinnati Reds

Why would they want Gray? Again, they traded for Harvey, right? The Reds took a flier on a talented pitcher to see whether he could be a long-term option. A no-risk move that didn’t cost them anything. Cincinnati desperately needs pitching help and taking a chance on Gray the same way they took a chance on Harvey could be a worthwhile endeavor. From their perspective, it’s all about cost.

Who could they send the Yankees? One year of Gray for one year of Scooter Gennett? The Yankees would do that in a heartbeat and the Reds would assuredly want more, and hey, maybe that’s a gap the two teams can bridge. The Reds have a lot of young pitchers who’ve stalled out at the MLB level (Cody Reed, Amir Garrett) and the Yankees could try to pry one (or two) of them loose in hopes of adding a long-term piece. Reclamation project for reclamation project, basically.

Houston Astros

Why would they want Gray? The Astros could lose Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency this offseason, and while they have some in-house rotation options (Josh James, Collin McHugh, Brad Peacock), they could pursue outside help. Sonny still has excellent spin rates across the board and Houston may see him as a good low-cost, high-upside candidate for their pitching lab. Keep in mind the Astros pursued Gray at the 2017 trade deadline as well. They’ve had interest in him before.

Who could they send the Yankees? Despite being a World Series contender, Houston has not been shy about trading players off their MLB roster, though they’ve been spare parts (Joe Musgrove) and out-of-favor guys (Ken Giles). The Yankees could push something like one year of Gray for one year of Peacock or one year of McHugh. Peacock was quite good as a starter last season before shifting to the bullpen this year and eventually being left off the postseason roster. Gray for Peacock? That seems like it could be a potential win-win or a potential lopsided deal for either team.

Los Angeles Angels

Why would they want Gray? Pretty simple, really. Mike Trout is two years from free agency, so the Angels aren’t about to rebuild, and they need rotation help. Andrew Heaney and Tyler Skaggs are a good enough rotation top two. Getting a guy like Gray to slot in behind Heaney and Skaggs and ahead of dudes like Felix Pena, Jaime Barria, and Nick Tropeano makes sense for the Angels. Get Sonny out of New York and into a more pitcher friendly ballpark.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Kole Calhoun? It’s a one-year commitment for each and the money is close to a wash, plus the Angels wouldn’t have much trouble finding a replacement corner outfielder in free agency. Calhoun’s a lefty bat and a very good defender who would slot in nicely in left field. He just stopped hitting though. Calhoun went from a 117 wRC+ in 2016 to a 98 wRC+ in 2017 to a 79 wRC+ in 2018. Eh. Put Gray in a more pitcher friendly ballpark and Calhoun in a more hitter friendly ballpark and maybe it works out for both teams?

Milwaukee Brewers

Why would they want Gray? I still think the Brewers are the best landing spot for Gray. They need rotation help and their pitching coach, Derek Johnson, was Sonny’s pitching coach at Vanderbilt. The two are close. It’s a fit. Milwaukee has done a real nice job accumulating talent under GM David Stearns and Gray seems right up their alley as an upside play.

Who could they send the Yankees? Two names jumped to mind: Chase Anderson and Eric Thames. Anderson was great in 2017 (2.74 ERA and 3.58 FIP) and not so great in 2018 (3.93 ERA and 5.22 FIP), so much so that he was left off the postseason roster. He is guaranteed $6.5M next year with affordable options for 2020 and 2021. I’m not sure the Brewers are ready to give up on him yet. They’re trying to add pitching, not subtract it. Besides, bringing a dude who gave up 30 homers in 158 innings this season into Yankee Stadium might not work out too well.

As for Thames, remember his huge April last year? Well, his performance has cratered since, and he hit .219/.306/.478 (105 wRC+) this year. Jesus Aguilar jumped him on the first base depth chart. Ryan Braun has also played some first base, so Thames is probably third on their first base depth chart. He wasn’t even on the Brewers postseason roster. Thames has one guaranteed year remaining on his contract ($7M) and Gray for Thames gives the Brewers a starter and the Yankees a lefty power bat they could plug in at first base or DH or, in an emergency, the outfield. Hmmm.

UPDATE: I should’ve mentioned Jonathan Schoop here as well, given that he’s a free agent next winter who is projected to make similar money as Gray. I just assumed the Brewers are not ready to flip him after trading some pretty good prospects to get him at the deadline. Schoop’s someone to keep in mind though.

Oakland Athletics

Why would they want Gray? I’ve heard through the grapevine that the A’s checked in on Gray at this year’s trade deadline. They really need starting pitching — they didn’t have anyone to start in the Wild Card Game! — and they know Sonny as well as anyone. The Athletics do have a history of trading for pricey veteran players one year before free agency (Jim Johnson and Luke Gregerson jump to mind) and again, they know Gray. They showed interest at the deadline and may look to bring him back to Oakland again this winter.

Who could they send the Yankees? Reverse the trade! Gray for James Kaprielian, Jorge Mateo, and Dustin Fowler! Nah, not happening. This trade has no winners right now. Mateo stunk this year, Kaprielian still hasn’t returned to game action following Tommy John surgery in April 2017, and Fowler struggled in MLB this year and was passed by Ramon Laureano on the center field depth chart. I don’t see an obvious big leaguer for big leaguer trade match here. It would have to be a prospect(s) that come back to New York.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Why would they want Gray? This is a long shot, I think. The Pirates traded Gerrit Cole last year because they were worried they couldn’t sign him long-term. Would they then turn around and trade for Gray when he could leave next year? I mean, sure, it’s possible, and they do need someone to slot alongside Chris Archer, Jameson Taillon, Ivan Nova, and Trevor Williams in the rotation. Money might be the issue here. Pittsburgh operates on a strict budget and Gray may not fit.

Who could they send the Yankees? Hey, if Gray signs at his MLBTR projected salary, he and Nova would be a wash financially. The Pirates aren’t doing that though. Besides, I’ve seen enough Ivan Nova for one lifetime. He’s been the same old Ivan Nova the last two years (98 ERA+ and 4.51 FIP) after his stellar eleven-start cameo with Pittsburgh in 2016. Would the Pirates do Gray for Corey Dickerson? The Yankees could slot Dickerson in at left field and DH and he’d give them a good lefty bat. Seems unlikely. I don’t see a good big leaguer for big leaguer trade. A prospect(s) trade it would have to be.

San Diego Padres

Why would they want Gray? The Padres are my sleeper team. They have no money on the books long-term other than Wil Myers and Eric Hosmer, and their farm system is incredible. One of the best I’ve ever seen. They are very well-positioned to take a chance on Gray, see what he does next season, then pay to keep him if he’s a fit. San Diego reportedly tried to land Noah Syndergaard at the deadline. They’re looking for pitching. Gray’s no Syndergaard, but he could be really good, and the Padres are the perfect team to roll the dice.

Who could they send the Yankees? I thought about Cory Spangenberg. He’ll never live up to hype associated with being the tenth overall pick in 2011, but he’s a lefty bat who can play the three non-first base infield positions and also left field. The downside is Spangenberg has only hit .252/.318/.385 (88 wRC+) with a 29.0% strikeout rate in 815 plate appearances the last two years. He has two years of control remaining and perhaps the Yankees will see him as a poor man’s Didi Gregorius/Aaron Hicks. The talented player who hasn’t put together yet. I dunno. Aside from prospects, there’s no much on San Diego’s roster that excites me.

San Francisco Giants

Why would they want Gray? San Francisco’s interest in Gray depends entirely on their long-term plan. They’re hiring a new baseball operations head this winter and, if they decide to rebuild, forget it. No reason to bring in Gray. If they decide to go for it next year while Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey (and Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt) are in their primes, then the Giants could definitely be a team to watch for Gray. Their rotation is pretty sketchy with Jeff Samardzija crashing and Johnny Cueto having Tommy John surgery.

Who could they send the Yankees? In last week’s mailbag I looked at Joe Panik and Tony Watson. I can’t see the Giants trading Watson for Gray for two reasons. One, they could get more for him elsewhere. And two, if they trade for Gray, it’s because they want to win in 2019, and trading Watson hurts that cause. As for Panik, that seems more reasonable. Both he and Gray are reclamation projects at this point and San Francisco has some others they could plug in at second base. The Yankees have liked Panik in the past and they could bring him aboard as their second baseman (with Gleyber Torres shifting to shortstop) until Gregorius returns. Other than Panik and Watson, I don’t see another fit with the Giants. Their big league roster is thin and their farm system is weak.

Seattle Mariners

Why would they want Gray? Depending who you ask, the Mariners have either seven viable big league starters (Roenis Elias, Marco Gonzales, Felix Hernandez, Mike Leake, Wade LeBlanc, James Paxton, Erasmo Ramirez) or three viable big league starters (Gonzales, Leake, Paxton). Felix has crashed hard the last few years and Elias, LeBlanc, and Ramirez are journeymen. If Gray leaves New York and pitches like he did earlier in his career, he’d be the second best starter in Seattle’s rotation, hands down. The window is closing and GM Jerry Dipoto has made it clear he’s going to do all he can to win before it slams shut.

Who could they send the Yankees? Geez, I have no idea. Their farm system is barren and their best big leaguers with short-term control are Felix (nope), Denard Span (eh), Juan Nicasio (nope), and Nick Vincent (nope). I’m sure we could cobble together an acceptable trade package if we tried hard enough. Nothing jumps out to me though.

Washington Nationals

Why would they want Gray? As bad as they were this year (82-80), the Nationals remain a win-now team. They still have Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Trea Turner, Juan Soto, and Victor Robles even if Bryce Harper leaves. Pretty good core! The Nationals could absolutely contend next season in the blob of mediocrity that is the National League. Washington has Scherzer, Strasburg, Tanner Roark, and maybe Joe Ross in their rotation. There is definitely room for Gray.

Who could they send the Yankees? Gray for Adam Eaton? The money is close to a wash and the Nationals could still move forward with a Soto-Robles-Michael Taylor/free agent outfield should Harper not return. Knee and ankle injuries have limited Eaton to 118 games the last two seasons, but, when healthy, he’s hit .300/.394/.422 (123 wRC+). That’s really good! The downside is the leg injuries have sapped his defensive and baserunning value. As a stopgap left fielder, Eaton could work real nice. Would the Nationals really trade such a high on-base leadoff hitter if they’re trying to win though? I don’t see any other players on their big league roster that make sense.

* * *

Cashman is not an idiot. He was so open about trading Gray because he knows there’s interest and he won’t have any trouble drumming up potential trade partners. If he were worried at all about his trade leverage, he would’ve said the Yankees plan to keep Gray and get him right. That’s not what happened. In all likelihood multiple teams will be involved and the Yankees will benefit from a bidding war.

That doesn’t mean they’re going to walk away with a great package, of course. At the end of the day, Sonny is still coming off a terrible season and he’s still only under control one more season. His trade value is not sky high. It’s not nil though. I get the feeling we’re in for a lot of Sonny Gray rumors this winter, and, when it’s all said and done, the Yankees are going to end up with more than you’d expect for a dude coming off a replacement level season.